贝森特重磅表态，事关美联储缩表

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, indicated that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to quickly reduce its balance sheet, even with the nomination of a critic of the bond-buying program, suggesting a cautious and wait-and-see approach to balance sheet management [2][4]. Group 1: Policy Expectations - Mnuchin emphasized that the adjustment of the balance sheet depends on the Federal Reserve's own willingness, and if a "ample reserves" policy is adopted, a large balance sheet will need to be maintained [4][6]. - He projected that the Federal Reserve might take at least a year to decide on its future path regarding the balance sheet, providing a longer buffer for investors to assess the liquidity environment [6]. Group 2: Historical Context of the Balance Sheet - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet significantly expanded during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, peaking at $9 trillion in the summer of 2022 [8]. - Following this peak, the Fed initiated a process known as quantitative tightening, allowing its assets to mature without reinvestment, which is expected to reduce the balance sheet to $6.6 trillion by the end of 2025 [8]. Group 3: Challenges and Policy Goals - The focus on the new Fed Chair nominee, Waller, reveals a potential conflict between aggressive balance sheet reduction and the goal of lowering mortgage rates, as reducing the balance sheet could exert upward pressure on long-term rates [11]. - Mnuchin's comments suggest that even with Waller's hawkish stance, an aggressive balance sheet reduction plan may yield to a more prudent strategy due to multiple policy objectives and real-world constraints [12].