行业报告 | 全球与中国轻型巡飞弹药市场现状及未来发展趋势

Core Insights - Lightweight loitering munitions (LLMs) are becoming a core component of conventional tactical firepower systems, significantly altering reconnaissance and strike modes in modern warfare [5][6] - The industry is characterized by a clear value chain and competitive landscape, with a focus on lightweight design, autonomous capabilities, and integration of intelligence and reconnaissance [5][6] Industry Current Status - LLMs have transitioned from "new concept equipment" to essential components in military operations, with widespread deployment observed in conflicts such as Ukraine and the Middle East [5] - The demand for LLMs is driven by their ability to provide organic precision strike capabilities at the squad level, with various military branches integrating them into standard configurations [5][6] - The supply side is dominated by the U.S. and Israel, with European and Middle Eastern manufacturers rapidly catching up [6][8] Market Development Trends - The global market for airborne loitering munitions is projected to grow from $377.64 million in 2024 to $3,724.16 million by 2031, with a CAGR of 31.1% [13] - Fixed-wing LLMs currently dominate the market, accounting for approximately 97.9% of revenue in 2024, although the growth rate for rotary-wing systems is significantly higher [14] - The demand from the army and air force is expected to drive market growth, with the air force projected to have the highest CAGR of 47.3% from 2024 to 2031 [15][16] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The battlefield use of LLMs has shifted from sporadic tactical applications to institutionalized warfare strategies, with Russia significantly increasing the deployment of Shahed drones [17] - The production capacity of LLMs is becoming centralized around localized manufacturing, which is crucial for future supply chains [17] Pricing and Cost Structure - The cost-effectiveness of LLMs is a key factor, with low-cost units like the Shahed series exerting pressure on traditional defense systems [8][20] - The market is expected to see a dual-track pricing structure, where low-end products increase in volume while high-end products maintain higher price points due to advanced capabilities [20] Policy and Compliance - Export regulations and compliance requirements are tightening, particularly concerning UAVs and related technologies, impacting manufacturers and buyers [23][24] - The evolving regulatory landscape necessitates careful navigation of compliance and supply chain management to mitigate risks associated with sanctions and export controls [23][24] Investment and Strategic Recommendations - Companies are advised to focus on localized production and bundled delivery systems to enhance competitiveness and reduce delivery times [21] - Emphasis on anti-jamming technologies and multi-source supply chains is recommended to mitigate risks associated with sanctions [21] - Integrating LLMs with counter-UAS systems is suggested to meet the growing demand for combined defense capabilities [21]