情绪周中回落，价量一致性快速下降——量化择时周报20260208

Core Viewpoint - Market sentiment has cooled, with the sentiment indicator at 2.65 as of February 6, slightly up from 2.6 the previous week, indicating a neutral stance from a sentiment perspective [4][5]. Sentiment Model Viewpoint - The sentiment model indicates a decline in market sentiment, with a rapid decrease in price-volume consistency, suggesting a significant drop in the correlation between price increases and market attention [5][7]. - The sentiment structure indicator is calculated using various sub-indicators, with a scoring method that evaluates the sentiment direction and Bollinger band positions, resulting in a 20-day moving average of the summed scores [2][3]. Market Activity - The price-volume consistency indicator has rapidly declined, reflecting a significant reduction in the degree of price-volume matching, indicating a cooling market sentiment [5][7]. - The total trading volume for the A-share market decreased significantly by 21.43% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 24,066.54 billion yuan, marking a notable drop in market activity [10][14]. Sector Analysis - As of February 6, 2026, the sectors with the highest short-term scores include construction materials and petroleum & petrochemicals, both scoring 93.22, indicating strong short-term performance [28]. - The correlation between sector congestion and weekly price changes is negative at -0.30, suggesting that high congestion sectors like food and beverage are experiencing significant price increases, while low congestion sectors may have more stable valuations [31][32]. Financing and Investment Sentiment - The financing balance ratio has slightly increased and remains above the upper Bollinger band, indicating a high level of leveraged funds and a generally positive risk appetite among investors [21][24]. - The RSI indicator has shown a decline, reflecting a decrease in short-term upward momentum and an increase in selling pressure, indicating a reduction in market participation willingness [23][34]. Overall Market Signals - The current model indicates a preference for large-cap and value styles, with signals suggesting potential strengthening in these areas as indicated by the rapid decline of the 5-day RSI relative to the 20-day RSI [28][35].