兴证王涵 | 日本大选结果对金融市场的潜在影响

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural changes in Japan's asset market, particularly the yen and Japanese government bonds, in the context of the global shift from a unipolar to a multipolar order, which is reshaping the pricing logic of global assets [2][4][25]. Group 1: Japan's Geopolitical Role - Japan's geopolitical position has evolved through two main phases: during the Cold War, it served as a critical support for the U.S. in Asia, and in the post-Cold War unipolar order, its value shifted to the financial domain [12][21]. - In the Cold War, Japan acted as a supply base for U.S. military activities and showcased Western capitalist values, while in the unipolar era, it became a capital-rich nation that provided a stable low-interest environment for U.S. capital [12][14]. Group 2: Impact of Global Order Changes - The transition to a multipolar world has diminished the U.S.'s reliance on Japan as a financial lever, as the U.S. faces a decline in hard power and a slowdown in foreign asset expansion [21][24]. - Japan's role is being pushed to the forefront of geopolitical competition, increasing its associated risks and undermining its status as a safe asset [3][21]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Despite short-term government interventions stabilizing market sentiment, the underlying fundamentals of the yen and Japanese bonds remain fragile due to geopolitical shifts [4][24]. - The ongoing dissolution of the unipolar order and the rise of multipolarity will continue to influence global financial markets, leading to a trend of "de-securitization" of Japanese assets [25][26].