【招银研究】全球制造业共振扩张，国内节前季节性特征凸显——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2026.02.09-02.14）

Group 1: Global Economic Trends - The capital expenditure plans of major US tech companies are significantly exceeding expectations, with projected spending reaching $610 billion by 2026, a 69.9% increase from 2025, raising concerns about potential shortages in commodities, semiconductors, and electricity [2] - The US job market is showing signs of cooling, with an 80% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice (50 basis points) within the year, and nearly a 50% chance of three cuts (75 basis points) [2] - Global manufacturing is experiencing a synchronized expansion driven by the AI industry, with strong PMI growth in major economies, particularly in the US, India, and ASEAN regions [2] Group 2: Japanese Political Landscape - The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) achieved a significant victory in the Japanese House of Representatives elections, securing 316 seats, which gives them and their coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, a total of 352 seats, allowing them to push major legislation and constitutional amendments [3] - Market sentiment is divided regarding the future direction of Prime Minister Kishi's "responsible active fiscal policy," with close attention needed on the budget framework for the fiscal year 2027 [3] Group 3: US Stock Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq index dropped by 1.8%, primarily due to concerns over the uncertainty of AI investment returns and the potential disruption of the software industry by AI [4] - Despite recent declines, the outlook for US stocks remains positive, supported by strong earnings growth across a broad range of companies, with a shift from valuation expansion to profit improvement as the driving logic [4] Group 4: Currency and Bond Market Insights - The US dollar is expected to experience a downward trend followed by a recovery, influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Europe, and ongoing uncertainties from former President Trump's policies [5] - The bond market showed strength, with the 10-year government bond yield declining to 1.8%, and expectations for a stable bond market with limited downward yield space due to inflationary pressures [11] Group 5: Chinese Economic Indicators - In the domestic real estate market, transaction volumes for new homes decreased by 29.4%, while second-hand homes saw a smaller decline of 6.8%, indicating a shift in demand towards the second-hand market [8] - Externally, export momentum is showing signs of recovery, with a 9.3% increase in port cargo throughput, although container shipping rates have declined by 4.5% [8] Group 6: A-share Market Outlook - February is anticipated to be a traditional bullish window for the A-share market, with historical data indicating higher performance post-Spring Festival compared to pre-festival [12] - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, driven by profit improvements rather than valuation expansions, with sectors like technology manufacturing showing strong performance [12] Group 7: Hong Kong Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index fell by 3.02%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 6.51%, reflecting weakened risk appetite influenced by declines in US and A-share tech sectors [13] - Despite recent declines, leading tech companies in Hong Kong are expected to have strong fundamental support, suggesting limited downside potential [13]