GLP1减重宝典·2026-02-09 11:16Core Viewpoint - The competition for GLP-1 weight loss drugs in China by 2026 will shift from who can get approved first to who can survive under pressure from payment and distribution channels while continuing to grow [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2025, the market will see a competitive landscape where Novo Nordisk's semaglutide system dominates, Eli Lilly's tirzepatide penetrates the market, and domestic players like Innovent and Yinoo differentiate themselves with dual-target GLP-1/GCG and long-acting GLP-1 products [6] - By 2026, the market will face intensified competition as insurance pricing pressures increase, major players normalize price wars, and the patent for semaglutide approaches expiration, leading to a surge in supply from biosimilars and similar products [6][9] Group 2: Company Strategies - For Novo Nordisk, the key challenge in 2025 is not new drug approvals but the rare decline in core products in Greater China, necessitating aggressive pricing and channel policies to maintain market share [7] - Eli Lilly's strategy involves a dual approach: using insurance pricing to gain scale in hospitals while adopting flexible retail strategies to capture weight management users [7] - Domestic companies face a common challenge of needing to reassess revenue models as major players drive prices down and insurance anchors lower, making it difficult to sustain high pricing and growth expectations [9] Group 3: New Variables in 2026 - The introduction of oral small-molecule GLP-1s will significantly increase competition in outpatient settings, with Eli Lilly's Orforglipron expected to enhance long-term adherence and channel integration [10] - The impact of insurance and hospital procurement will be felt in 2026, with products entering insurance quickly expanding prescription volumes but requiring acceptance of lower payment prices [10] - The market will see a surge of new domestic players, including those with recently approved products and innovative candidates that could disrupt the market structure [11][12] Group 4: Price Structure and Market Segmentation - By late 2026, the GLP-1 market in China will likely form a three-tier structure: a premium tier for original and strong innovative brands, a second tier for domestic innovations, and a third tier for biosimilars and similar products competing on price [20] - The expiration of semaglutide's patent will lead to a significant shift in the pricing landscape, requiring companies to adopt more conservative revenue expectations and refined commercialization strategies to avoid price wars [21]