存储紧缺仍被低估？高盛：大幅上调供需缺口预期，涨价对需求冲击有限！

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip market is facing the most severe supply shortage in 15 years, with Goldman Sachs raising expectations for supply-demand tension and warning of a significant gap in DRAM by 2026 [1][3]. DRAM Market Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that the DRAM supply shortage will reach 4.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, significantly higher than previous estimates of 3.3% and 1.1% [4]. - The primary driver of this tension is the explosive growth in server demand, with expectations for server DRAM (excluding HBM) to increase by 39% and 22% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [5]. - In contrast, demand for mobile and PC DRAM is expected to slow significantly, with growth rates of only 7% and 5% in 2026 [6]. NAND Market Insights - The NAND market is also experiencing a tightening supply-demand situation, with shortages projected at 4.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, up from earlier forecasts of 2.5% and 1.2% [8]. - Strong growth in enterprise SSD demand is a key driver, with expectations for enterprise SSD demand to rise by 58% and 23% in 2026 and 2027 [8]. HBM Market Insights - Goldman Sachs has raised the total addressable market (TAM) for HBM to $540 billion in 2026 and $750 billion in 2027, reflecting improved demand from GPUs and ASICs [11]. - ASIC demand is accelerating, with HBM demand from ASICs expected to increase by 27% and 14% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [12]. Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, citing their strong positions in the traditional memory market and expected significant profit margins [15][16]. - Micron's rating has been downgraded to neutral with a target price of $235, as most positive factors have already been priced in [18]. - For equipment stocks, Tokyo Electron is highlighted for its strong market share in leading DRAM manufacturing tools, while Ulvac and Disco are recommended for their roles in capital expenditures related to DRAM and HBM [18].