国泰海通｜纺服：优质消费布局正当时

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector is undergoing adjustments, and under the influence of cyclical sentiment, it is an opportune time to focus on quality consumer investments, particularly emphasizing three domestic demand lines and two external demand lines [1]. Domestic Demand - Recent recovery in both domestic and international consumption markets is noted, with the S&P 500 equal-weight index rising by 4.8% since January 2026, outperforming the S&P 500 market-cap weighted index which increased by 1.3% [2]. - The domestic food and beverage sector (+3.3%) and consumer services index (+2.8%) have led the market, which has a general increase of 0.3% [2]. - Key focus areas for domestic demand include: 1. Companies with strong fundamentals and dividend yields (A-shares above 5%, Hong Kong stocks above 7%) [2]. 2. Companies with valuations at near three-year lows (below the 20th percentile) and supported by dividend yields (above 7%) [2]. 3. Companies with positive or upwardly revised fundamental expectations [2]. External Demand - The overall adjustment in the technology sector and a shift in market style are observed, with a notable increase in consumer confidence in the U.S., as indicated by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index reaching 56.4, a five-month high [3]. - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is expected to result in record-high personal tax refunds in Q1 2026, estimated to reach $350 billion by the end of May, supporting consumer spending [3]. - Inventory turnover ratios for U.S. apparel retailers and wholesalers have reached three-year lows, indicating potential replenishment demand, benefiting quality manufacturing [3]. - Key focus areas for external demand include: 1. Companies with valuations at near three-year lows (below the 25th percentile) [3]. 2. Companies with profit growth expectations in the high single to double digits for 2026, supported by dividend yields (above 6%) [3].