国泰海通｜煤炭：印尼大幅消减产量配额，继续看好全球煤价上行

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's significant reduction in coal production quotas is expected to accelerate the global coal price increase cycle [1] Group 1: Indonesia's Coal Production Quotas - Indonesian government has implemented a substantial reduction plan for coal production quotas, leading to a suspension of spot coal exports by local miners [1] - The production quota for major miners was reduced by 40% to 70% compared to the 2025 levels, as part of a strategy to boost coal prices [1] - The expected coal production for Indonesia in 2025 is 790 million tons, a 5% year-on-year decrease from the earlier quota of 917 million tons [1] - A further reduction in production quotas to 600 million tons is anticipated for 2026, representing a 24% year-on-year decline [1] Group 2: Impact on China and Global Coal Prices - Indonesia is expected to export 211 million tons of coal to China in 2025, accounting for 41% of its total exports, which will directly lead to a decrease in China's import volumes [1] - China's coal imports are projected to continue declining, with an estimated total of around 450 million tons in 2026, a decrease of approximately 40 million tons [1] - The overall price of coal is expected to end a four-year decline cycle and begin to rise again in 2026, supported by stable domestic supply and slightly reduced overseas imports [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The coal sector is believed to have reached a cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics now evident [1] - The coal and downstream thermal power demand are expected to enter a new upward cycle starting in 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1]