光大证券研究·2026-02-09 23:06Core Viewpoint - Short-term copper prices are fluctuating, but the outlook for copper prices is positive for 2026 due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [4]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of February 6, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 100,100 CNY/ton, down 3.45% from January 30, while LME copper closed at 13,060 USD/ton, down 0.08% [4]. - The market perceives a low probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in March 2026, which supports overall commodity sentiment [4]. Group 2: Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 4.0%, while LME copper inventory rose by 4.9% [5]. - As of February 6, 2026, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 638,000 tons, down 5.2% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 1,021,000 tons, up 3.6% from January 30, with LME copper inventory at 183,000 tons, up 4.9% [5]. Group 3: Supply - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 504 CNY/ton this week [6]. - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 137,000 tons, up 12.9% month-on-month but down 9.9% year-on-year [6]. - Global copper concentrate production in November was 1,923,000 tons, down 1.9% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [6]. Group 4: Smelting - The TC spot price reached a new low this week, at -51.23 USD/ton, down 0.9 USD/ton from January 30 [7]. - In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,179,300 tons, up 0.1% month-on-month and 16.3% year-on-year [7]. - In December 2025, electrolytic copper imports were 260,000 tons, down 4.0% month-on-month and 29.8% year-on-year [7]. Group 5: Demand - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for 31% of domestic copper demand, saw an increase in operating rate to 60.15%, up 0.69 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - Air conditioning production, which represents 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to decline by 31.6% in February, 6.5% in March, and increase by 4.0% in April [8]. - Copper rod production, accounting for 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had a January operating rate of 50.86%, down 1.9 percentage points month-on-month but up 9.2 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Group 6: Futures - As of February 6, 2026, SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 21.4% to 175,000 lots, placing the position at the 47th percentile since 1995 [9]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions were 48,000 lots, down 1.2% from the previous week, at the 77th percentile since 1990 [9].