Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index increased by 6.62% month-on-month to 50.27 in January 2026 [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 1.6 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is $4,967 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Weekly inventory of hot-rolled steel is at a low level compared to the same period over the past five years [5] - Price changes this week include rebar at -0.93%, cement price index at -0.28%, rubber at -2.45%, coke at 0.00%, coking coal at -1.28%, and iron ore at -3.99% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates changed by +0.00 percentage points, -3.40 percentage points, and -1.3 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide price unchanged and glass price up by 0.28% [6] - The gross profit for titanium dioxide is -1,880 yuan per ton, while the flat glass operating rate is 73.89% this week [6] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high [7] - Major commodity price changes this week include cold-rolled steel at -0.53%, copper at -4.34%, and aluminum at -6.21%, with corresponding gross profit changes of turning losses into profits and a loss increase of 10.37% and 17.83% respectively [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 72.76%, a decrease of 2.08 percentage points [7] Subcategories - The price of oriented silicon steel has reached a new low since 2018 [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 19,000 yuan per ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1,944.04 yuan per ton, up by 1.17% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 23,110 yuan per ton, down by 6.21%, with a calculated profit of 6,072 yuan per ton (excluding tax), down by 17.83% [8] - The price of electrolytic copper is 100,100 yuan per ton, down by 4.34% [8] - The price of tungsten concentrate is 674,500 yuan per ton, up by 11.49% from last week [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.09 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 60 yuan per ton this week [10] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled steel and hot-rolled steel reached 370 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan per ton [10] - The price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.10 [10] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 180 yuan per ton this week, a decrease of 10.00% from last week [10] - The price difference between medium-thick plates and rebar steel is 110 yuan per ton this week [10] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in January is 47.80%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points month-on-month [11] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index is 1,122.15 points this week, down by 4.55% [11] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is 76.00%, a decrease of 0.90 percentage points [11] - Starting January 1, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export licensing management for certain steel products, which is expected to further regulate China's steel product exports [11] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 1.33% this week, with the best-performing cyclical sector being engineering machinery at +4.35% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently 60.06% and 84.30% respectively [12] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently 0.50, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82, reached in August 2017 [12]
【钢铁】有色金属价格普跌，但金、钨、钼、钒价格环比上涨——金属周期品高频数据周报（2026.2.2-2026.2.8）（王招华/戴默）
光大证券研究·2026-02-09 23:06