硅光，大爆发

Core Viewpoint - Silicon photonics technology is transforming data centers, with significant changes expected in the future, particularly in the transition from copper cables to fiber optics for both scale-out and scale-up networking [2][4]. Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - The fiber optic device market has grown from several billion dollars in 2003 to approximately $13 billion in 2023, with projections to reach $25 billion by 2030, driven primarily by the development of AI networks [4]. - Coherent's investor report predicts that the market for pluggable optical devices will grow from $6 billion in 2023 to $25 billion by 2030, with data rates primarily at 1.6T and 3.2T [16]. - The silicon photonics wafer foundry revenue is expected to grow eightfold from 2026 to 2032, with horizontal scaling currently being the main driver [35]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Silicon photonics integrates disparate photonic devices into improved CMOS processes, enabling higher bandwidth and lower power consumption compared to traditional copper cables [10][16]. - The transition from copper to fiber optics is facilitated by pluggable optical transceivers, which connect to electrical interfaces on switches or servers, allowing for high-speed data transmission [16]. - Co-packaged optics (CPO) are emerging as a more efficient alternative to pluggable optical devices, offering higher density and lower power consumption [21]. Group 3: Key Players and Innovations - Major players in the silicon photonics foundry market include GlobalFoundries, Tower Semiconductor, and TSMC, with TSMC expected to become the leading foundry due to its extensive capabilities in AI accelerator production [28][37]. - Companies like Nvidia and Broadcom are set to launch Ethernet switches using co-packaged optical devices by 2025, indicating a shift in market dynamics [21]. - Startups such as iPronics, nEye, and Salience are developing compact silicon photonics technologies for optical circuit switching systems, which may offer more economical and reliable solutions [20]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Directions - Signal loss remains a significant challenge in silicon photonics, necessitating precise control over signal integrity during design [45]. - The integration of silicon photonics with CMOS technology is still in its early stages, but advancements are expected to bring more structure and foundational knowledge to the field [39]. - The industry is likely to see a transformation in manufacturing structures, with TSMC poised to leverage its experience in AI accelerator manufacturing to become a dominant player in silicon photonics [53].