【公用事业】25年风光消纳同比下行，持续看好提升绿电消纳应用场景机会——公用事业行业周报（20260208）（殷中枢/宋黎超）

Market Overview - The SW public utility sector increased by 0.16%, ranking 14th among 31 SW primary sectors; the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.33%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.11%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 3.28% [4] - Among sub-sectors, thermal power decreased by 1.02%, hydropower increased by 0.68%, photovoltaic power rose by 3.09%, wind power grew by 0.31%, electric energy comprehensive services increased by 0.19%, while gas fell by 1.05% [4] Price Updates - Domestic and imported thermal coal prices rebounded; domestic Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal increased by 2 CNY/ton week-on-week, remaining below 700 CNY/ton; imported thermal coal at Fangchenggang 5500 kcal increased by 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [5] - The average clearing price for spot transactions in Shanxi and Guangdong decreased compared to last week; monthly agency purchase electricity operating costs are on the rise due to increased capacity electricity prices and the entry of new energy mechanism electricity into the settlement cycle [5] - In February, agency purchase electricity prices increased year-on-year in five regions: Shaanxi, Chongqing, Guangxi, Gansu, and Xinjiang; the highest mechanism electricity price allocation cost was in Hainan Province (0.0843 CNY/kWh) [5] Key Events - The National Energy Administration released a report on the 2025 national renewable energy grid connection and consumption situation, predicting that by 2025, the wind power utilization rate will be 94.3% and the photovoltaic utilization rate will be 94.8% [6] - The China Electricity Council published a report forecasting a 5%-6% year-on-year growth in total electricity consumption in 2026, with solar power generation capacity expected to exceed coal power capacity for the first time [6][7] Industry Outlook - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the increase in green electricity capacity is significant, and the trend of enhancing green electricity consumption is clear for the 15th Five-Year Plan period; opportunities in non-electric applications of renewable energy and direct connections of green electricity are promising [8] - The increase in capacity electricity prices partially offsets the decline in electricity prices; the spot market reflects the value of thermal power as a base load power source, becoming an important contributor to thermal power performance [8]