邮储银行去年“牛市”掉队，但今年迎来利好？

Core Viewpoint - Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) has shown poor stock performance despite being one of the best in terms of net interest margin and non-performing loan (NPL) ratio among the six major banks, raising questions about its low valuation in a generally bullish banking sector [3][4][5]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - In 2025, Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) had a stock price increase of 52.66%, while PSBC only saw a rise of 0.67%, slightly outperforming Bank of Communications (0.37%) [3][4]. - As of January 2026, PSBC's price-to-book (PB) ratio was 0.6, the second lowest among the six major banks, significantly lower than ABC's 0.86 [5]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - For the first three quarters of 2025, PSBC's revenue grew by 1.82% and net profit by 0.98%, placing it in the middle tier among state-owned banks [7]. - PSBC led the six major banks in asset expansion speed, indicating competitive project acquisition capabilities [11]. Group 3: Risk and Business Structure - Despite having the best net interest margin and lowest NPL ratio among the six major banks, PSBC's valuation remains low due to concerns over risk accumulation in its retail-focused business model [12][14]. - The shift in retail lending dynamics has led to increased NPL ratios, with PSBC being the only major bank experiencing a continuous rise in NPLs and a decline in provision coverage [17][20]. Group 4: Strategic Changes and Leadership - The recent appointment of Lu Wei as the new president is expected to bring a shift in strategy, focusing on corporate lending and addressing the bank's weaknesses in wealth management and corporate services [25][32]. - The transition from a retail-dominant strategy to a more balanced approach involving corporate lending is anticipated to take time due to structural constraints [33][40]. Group 5: Market Expectations - The market has some renewed expectations for PSBC under the new leadership, particularly in enhancing corporate lending capabilities and addressing the existing talent gaps in wealth management [41]. - If PSBC can manage to alleviate individual loan risks and improve its wealth management offerings, there may be potential for a positive stock performance in the near future [41].