政策稳步发力，结构优化，动能转换 —— 银行视角 2026 年全国两会解读 分析师：张一纬 分析师：袁世麟 银行行业 | | | 分析师 张一纬 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 行业深度报告 · 银行行业 政策稳步发力，结构优化，动能转换 —— 银行视角 2026 年全国两会解读 2026 年 03 月 06 日 核心观点 ：010-80927617 ：zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理：袁世麟 ：yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026 年 03 月 05 日 -20% 0% 20% 40% 2025/3/6 2025/4/6 2025/5/6 2025/6/6 2025/7/6 2025/8/6 2025/9/6 2025/10/6 2025/11/6 2025/12/6 2026/1/6 2026/2/6 SW银行 沪深300 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1.【银河银行】行 ...

记者丨 张欣 编辑丨方海平 肖嘉 "拟发行特别国债3000亿元，支持国有大型商业银行补充资本。"3月5日，十四届全国人大四次 会议开幕，国务院总理李强在作政府工作报告时明确表示。 这意味着，继2025年首笔5000亿元特别国债注资中国银行、建设银行、交通银行、邮储银行 后，第二轮国有大行资本补充计划正式启动。 随着新一轮注资安排提上日程，市场目光自然聚焦于尚未获得首轮注资的工商银行与农业银 行。 在"分期分批、一行一策"的政策思路下，这两家银行被认为有望在此轮注资中优先获得 资本补充。 根据全球系统重要性银行的资本要求，工商银行、农业银行的核心一级资本充足率监管底线分 别为9.5%和9.0%。截至2025年三季度末，两家银行的核心一级资本充足率均满足监管要求， 分别为13.57%（同比下降2.72%）和11.16%（同比下降2.28%）。 在经营环境承压、监管要求趋严的背景下，国有大行资本补充需求持续存在。此次特别国债的 再度发行，是国家层面巩固大型商业银行稳健性、提升其服务实体经济主力军作用的延续性战 略部署。 更多相关内容 出品丨21财经客户端 21世纪经济报道 编辑丨张嘉钰 赤字规模将增加2300亿，释 ...

2026.03. 05 在此背景下，第二批国有大行资本补充计划已在市场预期之内。"这是2025年政策的延续，3000亿元 特别国债定向补充国有大行核心一级资本。"上海金融与发展实验室主任曾刚对第一财经表示，此举 属前瞻性布局：一是缓解大行因净息差收窄、盈利放缓导致的内源资本补充压力，提升资本充足率与 抗风险能力；二是增强信贷投放能力，按杠杆效应可撬动数万亿元信贷，更好支持实体经济与稳增 长；三是夯实金融"压舱石"，配合化解地方金融风险、维护金融稳定。 惠誉评级亚太区金融机构评级董事薛慧如也对第一财经表示："此次国有大行资本补充计划的整体进 度符合我们预期。"她认为，中国政府对国有银行的增资计划彰显了强劲支持，并有助于缓解银行盈 利及资本压力，从而提升服务实体经济的能力，以及面临内外部冲击时的风险抵御能力。 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 3月5日，十四届全国人大四次会议开幕，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告，明确今年拟发行特别国 债3000亿元，支持国有大型商业银行补充资本。 这也意味着，继2025年5000亿元特别国债注资4家国有大行到账之后，第二批国有大行注资安排已经 在路上。在财政部时隔26年再度发行特别国债注资 ...

Market Overview - The mobile banking app industry in China is transitioning to a mature stage, with user behavior becoming more efficient as the user base stabilizes. The focus is shifting from prolonged browsing to high-frequency, short-duration, and purpose-driven usage, necessitating refined operations [1][7][9]. Technology Trends - AI and ecosystem integration are driving a transformation in service delivery. AI and large models are becoming core infrastructures, enhancing business operations and interactions, while native adaptations and smart risk control improve user experience and security [2][11]. Policy Environment - Regulatory frameworks are tightening, emphasizing compliance and innovation. The "Five Major Articles" guide innovation directions, while new rules on data security and existing user base management establish compliance as a prerequisite for development [3][14]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is increasingly defined by ecological and regional capabilities. State-owned banks leverage embedded ecosystems for a competitive edge, while joint-stock banks survive through professional differentiation. Regional banks grow through local market penetration, and private banks are becoming relatively marginalized [4][16]. User Engagement and Demographics - The core user demographic for mobile banking apps consists predominantly of males (56.7%), with 63.3% under 40 years old and 66.5% being married. The user base is heavily concentrated in new first-tier and lower-tier cities, with a significant portion of users belonging to the middle-income group [6][45][48]. User Behavior Insights - From March 2023 to December 2025, the frequency of app usage is expected to slightly decline, while the effective usage duration will stabilize after a decrease. This indicates a shift from passive browsing to more efficient, functional usage, highlighting the need for banks to enhance service value and user experience [9][11]. Monthly Active Users (MAU) Rankings - The top mobile banking apps by average MAU in 2025 include Agricultural Bank of China (249 million), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (194 million), and China Construction Bank (108 million). The rankings reflect a strong presence of state-owned banks in the top tier [5][18][21]. Case Studies of Leading Banks - Agricultural Bank of China aims to enhance user experience through its mobile banking version 11.0, focusing on intelligent service matching and comprehensive security [30]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China emphasizes smart financial services with its app version 1.0, offering features like wealth management and consumer loans [33]. - Postal Savings Bank of China targets a more companion-like service approach with its app version 11.0, enhancing user engagement [35]. - China Merchants Bank leads among joint-stock banks with a focus on wealth management and digital loan processing in its app version 14.0 [37]. - Ping An Bank's app version 8.0 emphasizes AI-driven service enhancements and personalized insights [39]. - Beijing Bank's app version 10.0 aims to provide a comprehensive financial ecosystem for users [41]. Future Outlook - The mobile banking app market is expected to continue evolving, with a focus on integrating advanced technologies and enhancing user engagement through tailored services, particularly for the core demographic of young and middle-aged users [11][14][48].

2026年黄金的走势可以用"上蹿下跳"来形容，冲高之后快速回落，目前黄金在5000美元/盎司 上下波动，年内的振幅超过了30%。世界黄金协会（WGC）最新数据显示， 2026年1月，全 球央行黄金购买量不足2025年以来月均需求的20% ，但新主权主体的入市表明黄金储备积累 的需求基础正逐步拓宽。 WGC亚太区高级研究主管玛丽莎·萨利姆（Marissa Salim）在其最新月度报告中指出："与过 去12个月均值27吨相比，年初央行购金动能有所放缓，1月净购金量仅为5吨。金价波动与假期 因素或致使部分央行暂缓购金，但地缘政治紧张态势未见缓和迹象，预计2026年及未来黄金储 备积累仍将持续。" 国央行表示，ETF结构在流动性与交易便利性上优于实物黄金；目前该行持有104吨实物黄金 （约占总储备的4%），在全球央行黄金储备排名中位列第41位。 萨利姆补充道："我们的2025年《央行黄金储备调查》显示，通过ETF配置黄金在央行中较为 罕见，所有受访央行均未采用这一购金方式。" 世界黄金协会认为， 全球央行群体的需求拓宽或将成为2026年核心趋势 。萨利姆总结："正 如1月数据所示，马来西亚与韩国央行在长期缺席后，均重 ...

FF301 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： RMB 120,095,053,492 | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601658 | 說明 | A股(上海證券交易所) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 100,238,886,492 RMB | | 1 RMB | | 100,238,886,492 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 100,238,886,492 RMB | | 1 RMB | | 100,238,886,492 | 1. 股份分類 普通股 股份類別 H 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) 是 證券代號 (如上市) 01658 說明 H股 法定/註冊股份數目 面值 法定/註冊股本 上月底結存 19,856,167,000 RMB 1 RMB 19,856,167,000 增加 / 減少 (-) RMB 本月底結存 19,856,167,000 RMB ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report forecasts a social financing growth rate of 8.1% for February 2026, with a total social financing increment of 2.1 trillion CNY, which is a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 trillion CNY [4][7]. - It is expected that the total outstanding social financing will reach 451.1 trillion CNY by the end of February, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 8.1% and a month-on-month decline of 0.07 percentage points [4][7]. - The report highlights that credit growth is anticipated to be lower year-on-year due to the impact of the Spring Festival, with corporate credit demand expected to remain flat and retail loans likely to decrease year-on-year [4][7]. Summary by Sections Social Financing Estimates - The estimated social financing stock for February 2026 is 451.1 trillion CNY, up from 449.1 trillion CNY in January 2026 and 417.3 trillion CNY in February 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.0% and a year-on-year increase of 33.8% [7]. - The report predicts a decrease in new RMB loans for February 2026, estimating an increment of 0.5 trillion CNY, which is a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 trillion CNY [4][7]. Credit and Bond Financing - The report anticipates a decrease in government and credit bond net financing for February, with government bonds expected to net finance 1.4 trillion CNY, down 0.3 trillion CNY year-on-year [4][7]. - The report also notes that the demand for bank bills is expected to remain strong, with a decrease of 1,000 billion CNY in discounted bank acceptance bills, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2,000 billion CNY [4][7]. Monetary Growth - The report emphasizes the importance of M2 growth, which is expected to remain high at around 9.0% in February, supported by strong government bond financing and improved corporate cash flow [4][7]. - M1 growth is projected to rise to approximately 5.1%, influenced by a low base effect and the reduced impact of deposit migration [4][7].

主力资金闻风而动，今日净买入银行板块53.34亿元，在申万一级行业中仅次于石油石化、交通运输。 分析来看，银行走强的核心原因在于"红利+防御"的资产属性，地缘政治风险带动市场避险情绪升温， 防御性资产重获资金关注。 具体来看，一方面，经过此前回调，银行股重回高股息、低估值的高性价比区间。截至3月3日，A股42 只银行股中22股股息率超4.5%，中证银行指数整体股息率达4.74%，估值市净率PB（LF）仅0.64倍，长 期配置价值突出。在无风险利率中枢下行的背景下，高股息资产对长期资金的吸引力增强。 地缘冲突加剧导致全球避险情绪升温，银行股逆市走强。全市场规模最大的银行ETF（512800）场内价 格一度上涨1.67%，收涨0.9%，日线稳步3连阳，收复10日、20日两条重要均线，全天成交额14.5亿元， 创2025年12月以来天量。 个股多数走强，国有大行集体冲高，农业银行涨近4%，交通银行、工商银行、建设银行、中国银行涨 超2%，邮储银行涨1%；城农商行局部强势，重庆银行涨超5%，渝农商行涨超3%。 另一方面，从历史长期表现看，银行板块具备优异的抗风险能力。数据显示，截至2025年末，中证银行 指数自200 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The central theme of the report discusses the impact of recent currency policies on liquidity, specifically focusing on the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) measures to adjust the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio and its implications for cross-border liquidity [13][22] - The report highlights that the PBOC's recent policies aim to stabilize the RMB's exchange rate and enhance the liquidity of the offshore RMB market, which is expected to support the internationalization of the RMB [16][22] Summary by Sections 1. Current Observations: How Currency Policies Affect Liquidity - The PBOC introduced two key policies: a notification regarding RMB cross-border interbank financing and a reduction of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange transactions from 20% to 0% [13][18] - RMB cross-border interbank financing is crucial for providing RMB liquidity to offshore markets, with the potential net outflow limit estimated at approximately 1.79 trillion CNY, significantly higher than the current balance of about 1,942 billion CNY [16][17] 2. Forward Foreign Exchange Business - The adjustment of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio is designed to lower the costs associated with forward foreign exchange transactions, thereby increasing demand in the forward market and countering expectations of RMB appreciation [18][19] 3. Outlook on Cross-Border Liquidity - The report anticipates that while speculative inflows may slow down, the demand for foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets will remain robust, driven by fundamentals, returns, and safety differentials [22][23] - It is expected that the increase in interbank lending will tighten liquidity in the banking sector, prompting the PBOC to potentially implement additional liquidity measures through government bond transactions and open market operations [23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in month-end bill rates, with a significant decrease in net purchases by major banks year-on-year [1][14] - The central bank's operations included a total of CNY 16,410 billion in 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of CNY 4,614 billion [14] - The report anticipates continued flexibility in central bank operations to stabilize liquidity fluctuations, especially with important meetings approaching [14][21] Summary by Sections Section 1: Month-End Bill Rate Rebound - The overall liquidity in the market is balanced due to post-holiday fund recovery and tax payments [14] - Major banks' net purchases of bills have significantly decreased, with only an increase of approximately CNY 320 billion year-on-year as of February 27 [17] Section 2: Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The central bank's MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) increased by CNY 6,000 billion, continuing to inject long-term liquidity into the market [14] - The end-of-period rates for DR001 and DR007 were 1.32% and 1.50%, reflecting increases of 0.68bp and 18.23bp respectively [15] Section 3: Bank Financing Tracking - The total outstanding amount of interbank certificates of deposit (NCD) reached CNY 18.77 trillion, with a weighted average issuance rate of 1.59% [19] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit for the period was CNY 4,545 billion, with a completion rate of 93.3% [19]