[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行投资观察 20260315 通胀回升的金融影响推导 | [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-03-15 | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 可能的金融影响：第一，随着名义经济的回升，长债利率将向上突破震 荡区间上沿。超长端利率上行已经持续一年，十年期国债利率震荡格局 预计也将向上突破。央行结构性货币政策对非银同业活期调整可能是 今年最后一次利率政策工具，考虑到物价逐渐回升环境，货币政策的 "灵活"大概率指的是方向灵活，"高效"可能意味着不再动用价格型 政策工具。第二，金融市场风偏阶段性下降，实物资产名义回报率上升 将驱动资本追逐实体资产，同时名义经济回升也意味着广谱资产流动 性的收缩，流动性驱动的估值扩张可能会变慢，资产市场可能从流动性 驱动转向盈利驱动，这一过程转换可能金融资产会先经历一轮逆风期。 第三，短期看风偏和油价上涨驱动了美元的避险和交易需求，但长期看 资本流向的底层逻辑依然是安全性驱动，中东动荡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The frequent changes in bank executives since 2025 reflect a deeper logic aimed at promoting high-quality development within the banking sector [2][8]. Group 1: Executive Changes - Zhang Jingke has been officially approved as the new president of Hangzhou Bank as of February 28, 2025, marking a significant leadership change [4]. - The wave of executive changes since 2025 includes major state-owned banks and joint-stock banks, with several banks such as Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank undergoing leadership transitions [6][7]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - As of the end of 2025, Hangzhou Bank reported total assets of 236.49 billion, an increase of 11.96% year-on-year; total loans of 107.19 billion, up 14.33%; and total deposits of 144.06 billion, rising by 13.20% [5]. - The bank's wealth management subsidiary has over 600 billion in outstanding wealth management products, reflecting a 39% growth compared to the previous year [5]. - The non-performing loan ratio stands at 0.76%, unchanged from the previous year, while the ratios of overdue loans to non-performing loans and overdue loans over 90 days to non-performing loans have decreased by 16.87 and 10.17 percentage points, respectively [5]. Group 3: Underlying Logic of Executive Changes - The banking sector is facing challenges such as rapid financial technology development, intensified market competition, and increasing regulatory requirements, prompting the need for executive changes to facilitate high-quality development [9]. - The shift from a scale-driven to a value-driven model in banking is essential due to adjustments in interest rates and pressures related to deposit migration, necessitating a transformation in profitability and operational logic [9]. - The rapid advancement of financial technology is disrupting traditional banking models, requiring banks to accelerate digital transformation and innovate products and services to meet diverse customer needs [9].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 降准降息预期走弱 ——银行资负跟踪 20260315 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-15 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 03/26 银行 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38003646 | nijun@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 林虎 | SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 | | SFC CE No. BWK411 | 021-38003643 | | | gflinhu@gf.com.cn | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | | | 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_ 相关 ...

2 月资金月报： 受季节因素影响，机构资金流出，散户资金流入较多 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈程 | 上市公司数 | 42 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 147,098.51 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 140,825.95 | 辑：定力和底线思维》2026-03-08 净息差保持平稳，净利润增速转正》 2026-02-22 工》2026-02-14 银行 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2026 年 03 月 13 日 执业证书编号：S0740525110001 Email：chencheng07@zts.com.cn 基本状况 市场资金：理财、公募规模稳步增长，北向资金持仓市值增加。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 分析师：邓美君 银行板块个股表现与资金流向：1）板块表现：2 月份银行板块录得下跌-0.55%，跑 输沪深 300 指数 0.64 个百分点，在 31 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting multiple favorable factors including policy, fundamentals, and capital market conditions [4]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the acceleration of building a financial power, focusing on risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development, which will significantly reshape the banking industry's operating environment, business structure, profit models, and valuation systems [6][9]. - The banking sector is expected to undergo a critical phase of structural adjustment, model transformation, and valuation reshaping, shifting from total expansion to structural optimization to capture incremental business opportunities [4][6]. - The report identifies that the financial services provided by banks will increasingly focus on supporting the real economy, particularly in areas such as technology innovation, green finance, and consumption [13][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Financial Power Enhancement - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the need for a robust central bank system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework, aiming to enhance the resilience of the banking system and support stable operations [9][10]. - Systemically important banks are likely to face stricter regulatory requirements, which may increase compliance costs in the short term but will strengthen the banking system in the long run [10][11]. 2. Capital Market Reforms - Continuous deepening of capital market reforms is expected to provide financial support for the banking sector's valuation reshaping, with an emphasis on enhancing the participation of long-term capital [15][4]. - The report notes that the average dividend payout ratio for banks is projected to remain stable at a relatively high level, with significant potential for long-term capital inflows [15]. 3. Differentiated Development - The plan encourages financial institutions to focus on their core businesses and improve governance, which will help reduce homogeneous competition in the banking sector [17][20]. - The optimization of the financial system is expected to enhance the pricing order and improve net interest margins for banks [20][22]. 4. Regulatory and Legislative Enhancements - The report highlights the acceleration of financial legislation, with new laws aimed at enhancing the regulatory framework for the banking sector, including the formulation of a financial law and a financial stability law [22][23]. - Comprehensive financial regulation will focus on preventing systemic risks, particularly in key areas such as real estate and local government debt [22][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry, indicating a positive outlook on the industry's fundamentals [1]. Core Insights - In February 2026, social financing (社融) increased by 8.2% year-on-year, remaining stable month-on-month, with total new loans growing by 6.0% year-on-year, reflecting strong loan issuance [6]. - The total new social financing in February 2026 was 2.38 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the same period in 2025, primarily due to robust loan issuance [6]. - Corporate short-term and medium-to-long-term loans showed strong growth, with short-term loans increasing by 600 billion yuan and medium-to-long-term loans by 890 billion yuan compared to February 2025 [6]. - The report highlights a trend of "deposit migration," where non-bank deposits grew by 26.13% year-on-year, indicating a shift in asset allocation from deposits to wealth management products [6]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The banking sector's performance over the last month shows a 2.1% increase, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has seen a 0.2% increase [3]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Several banks are highlighted with their respective stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025E, and 2026E, all rated as "Buy": - Hangzhou Bank (600926.SH): Price 17.16, EPS 2.91 for 2026E [8] - Nanjing Bank (601009.SH): Price 11.18, EPS 1.94 for 2026E [8] - Shanghai Bank (601229.SH): Price 9.87, EPS 1.74 for 2026E [8] - Ningbo Bank (002142.SZ): Price 31.15, EPS 4.76 for 2026E [8] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398.SH): Price 7.20, EPS 1.03 for 2026E [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, highlighting the potential for earnings recovery and structural opportunities in the context of macroeconomic policies [4]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to experience earnings elasticity driven by optimized funding costs and the potential for increased non-interest income [4]. - The report forecasts a year-on-year revenue growth of 3.42% and net profit growth of 3.3% for listed banks in 2026, with Q1 expected to show a revenue increase of 2.8% and net profit growth of 2.58% [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Drivers of Banking Performance Improvement in 2026 - Credit growth remains stable with a focus on structural optimization, despite weaker-than-expected credit performance in January [6][7]. - The re-pricing of liabilities is anticipated to be a major source of earnings elasticity, with a significant amount of long-term deposits maturing in 2026 [4][39]. - The trend of deposit migration continues, alongside a recovery in the capital markets, which is expected to enhance non-interest income through wealth management and distribution of financial products [4][6]. - The initial recovery in the bond market, combined with a low base from the previous year, may boost Q1 performance, although challenges in the capital market are expected throughout the year [4][6]. - Risk clearance is accelerating, with sufficient provisions available for potential losses, particularly in the real estate sector [4][6]. 2. Performance Recovery Expected, Q1 Forecast to Exceed Last Year - The report anticipates that Q1 performance will be better than the same period last year, driven by optimized funding costs, potential for increased non-interest income, and the release of provisions [4][6]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the banking sector, emphasizing the continued accumulation of favorable factors for bank operations and the potential for earnings elasticity in 2026 [4][6]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Changshu Bank [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the banking sector in China, particularly the performance of covered banks during the earnings season for 4Q25 and the outlook for 2026 [1][4][30]. Core Themes and Financial Projections - **Profitability Expectations**: Average Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) growth for covered banks in 4Q25 is expected to be 4%, with profit growth projected at 3% [1][6]. - **Revenue Growth**: Overall revenue growth for banks is anticipated to improve in 2026, although profit growth will show divergence among banks [1][30]. - **Stock Recommendations**: CMB is recommended as a stock with high dividends and high EPS growth, maintaining a Buy rating with revised target prices of Rmb 54.71/HK$ 53.44 for A/H shares [1][30]. Key Financial Metrics - **Net Interest Margin (NIM)**: Expected to stabilize around 1.35% in 2026/2027 after a slight decline from 1.39% in 2025. The average decline for covered banks is projected to narrow to -6/-6 basis points YoY in 4Q25/1Q26 [8][11][30]. - **Loan Growth**: Anticipated to remain stable at 8% YoY in 2026, with specific banks like CMB and PAB expected to see loan growth of 7% and 6% respectively [24][25][30]. Consumer Finance and Fee Income - **Consumer Finance Recovery**: Expected to support loan growth, with banks forecasting better retail loan growth in 2026 compared to 2025. However, the sluggish property market may keep retail loan growth under pressure in the short term [32][36]. - **Fee Income Growth**: Projected to be 16% YoY in 4Q25 and 7% YoY in 2026 for covered banks, driven by a recovery in capital market-related fee income [38][47]. Asset Quality and Provisions - **Retail NPL Ratios**: Retail Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratios are rising, but banks that have proactively managed retail risks may see a quicker recovery. For instance, PAB's retail NPL ratio has declined [53][57]. - **Mortgage Loans**: Considered high-quality assets with low default rates, although NPL ratios are on an upward trend. The focus will be on banks achieving positive mortgage growth despite weak property sales [54][61]. Investment Income and Revenue Sensitivity - **Investment Income**: Expected to show YoY negative growth in 4Q25 due to a high base effect, but a QoQ rebound is anticipated in 1Q26 driven by bond investments and slight interest rate declines [65][69]. - **Reduced Sensitivity**: The impact of investment income on bank revenue is expected to diminish, with forecasts indicating flat growth in 2026/27 [66][68]. Conclusion - The banking sector in China is poised for a mixed performance in 2026, with expectations of improved revenue growth but divergent profit growth among banks. Key areas of focus include consumer finance recovery, asset quality management, and the stabilization of NIM.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the banking sector, indicating a defensive value amidst external uncertainties affecting the A-share market [2][5]. Core Insights - The "Two Sessions" have provided financial signals, focusing on monetary policy, financial risk prevention, and institutional reforms. The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, prioritizing stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [5][11]. - The report anticipates that the frequency of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts will remain consistent with the previous year, with a lower probability of implementation in the first half of the year. The growth rate of social financing (社融) and M2 may fall below 8% [5][11]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be emphasized, with an expected net investment scale exceeding 540.5 billion in 2025, focusing on supporting domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [6][11]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Dynamics - The report highlights the successful convening of the "Two Sessions" and the focus on monetary policy and financial risk prevention by the People's Bank of China [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a decline of 2.30% in the Wind All A Index, while the Shenwan banking sector increased by 1.64% [17]. Data Overview - The central bank's net withdrawal this week was 1.56 trillion, with a decrease in various interest rates, including the Shibor rates [4][25]. - The report provides detailed data on the performance of various banking stocks, including their dividend rates and price-to-earnings ratios [22]. Banking Sector Trends - The report indicates that the net interest margin decline is stabilizing, suggesting that revenue challenges for commercial banks may be easing. It recommends focusing on city commercial banks in key development areas and national banks with lower non-performing asset pressures [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its undervaluation and high dividend characteristics, with a focus on structural transformation and opportunities arising from the new 14th Five-Year Plan [7][8]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic policy is focused on stability and progress, which is beneficial for the banking sector's operational fundamentals. The government has set a GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% for 2026, emphasizing quality and efficiency in economic growth [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and deepening fiscal-financial collaboration to optimize structure and increase incremental growth. Key measures include issuing special bonds and new policy financial tools to support consumption and investment [7][30]. - The banking sector is expected to undergo structural adjustments, model transformations, and valuation re-evaluations, with a focus on comprehensive financial services in areas like technology innovation and new production capabilities [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Macroeconomic Policy - The government aims to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations while promoting quality growth. The focus is on reform measures and macro policies working in tandem to enhance economic cycles [9][10]. 2. Expanding Domestic Demand - The report outlines a dual approach to stimulate consumption and investment, with a focus on fiscal-financial collaboration. A special long-term bond of 250 billion yuan is allocated to support consumption upgrades, and a 1 trillion yuan fund is established to promote domestic demand [30][31]. 3. Financial Sector Dynamics - The report discusses the "anti-involution" trend in the financial sector, which aims to reshape pricing and operational models. This is expected to improve the pricing ecology and enhance net interest margins for banks [7][8]. 4. Risk Mitigation - Continuous risk mitigation efforts are highlighted, particularly in the real estate sector, where asset quality is expected to stabilize. The focus is on balancing risk prevention with development [7][8]. 5. Long-term Investment Opportunities - The report notes that long-term capital inflows are accelerating, which will help realize the banking sector's dividend value. The structural transformation and energy shift under the new 14th Five-Year Plan are anticipated to create new investment opportunities [7][8]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific banks for investment, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, and others, citing their potential for growth and stability in the current economic environment [7][8].