2 月资金月报： 受季节因素影响，机构资金流出，散户资金流入较多 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈程 | 上市公司数 | 42 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 147,098.51 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 140,825.95 | 辑：定力和底线思维》2026-03-08 净息差保持平稳，净利润增速转正》 2026-02-22 工》2026-02-14 银行 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2026 年 03 月 13 日 执业证书编号：S0740525110001 Email：chencheng07@zts.com.cn 基本状况 市场资金：理财、公募规模稳步增长，北向资金持仓市值增加。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 分析师：邓美君 银行板块个股表现与资金流向：1）板块表现：2 月份银行板块录得下跌-0.55%，跑 输沪深 300 指数 0.64 个百分点，在 31 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting multiple favorable factors including policy, fundamentals, and capital market conditions [4]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the acceleration of building a financial power, focusing on risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development, which will significantly reshape the banking industry's operating environment, business structure, profit models, and valuation systems [6][9]. - The banking sector is expected to undergo a critical phase of structural adjustment, model transformation, and valuation reshaping, shifting from total expansion to structural optimization to capture incremental business opportunities [4][6]. - The report identifies that the financial services provided by banks will increasingly focus on supporting the real economy, particularly in areas such as technology innovation, green finance, and consumption [13][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Financial Power Enhancement - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the need for a robust central bank system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework, aiming to enhance the resilience of the banking system and support stable operations [9][10]. - Systemically important banks are likely to face stricter regulatory requirements, which may increase compliance costs in the short term but will strengthen the banking system in the long run [10][11]. 2. Capital Market Reforms - Continuous deepening of capital market reforms is expected to provide financial support for the banking sector's valuation reshaping, with an emphasis on enhancing the participation of long-term capital [15][4]. - The report notes that the average dividend payout ratio for banks is projected to remain stable at a relatively high level, with significant potential for long-term capital inflows [15]. 3. Differentiated Development - The plan encourages financial institutions to focus on their core businesses and improve governance, which will help reduce homogeneous competition in the banking sector [17][20]. - The optimization of the financial system is expected to enhance the pricing order and improve net interest margins for banks [20][22]. 4. Regulatory and Legislative Enhancements - The report highlights the acceleration of financial legislation, with new laws aimed at enhancing the regulatory framework for the banking sector, including the formulation of a financial law and a financial stability law [22][23]. - Comprehensive financial regulation will focus on preventing systemic risks, particularly in key areas such as real estate and local government debt [22][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry, indicating a positive outlook on the industry's fundamentals [1]. Core Insights - In February 2026, social financing (社融) increased by 8.2% year-on-year, remaining stable month-on-month, with total new loans growing by 6.0% year-on-year, reflecting strong loan issuance [6]. - The total new social financing in February 2026 was 2.38 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the same period in 2025, primarily due to robust loan issuance [6]. - Corporate short-term and medium-to-long-term loans showed strong growth, with short-term loans increasing by 600 billion yuan and medium-to-long-term loans by 890 billion yuan compared to February 2025 [6]. - The report highlights a trend of "deposit migration," where non-bank deposits grew by 26.13% year-on-year, indicating a shift in asset allocation from deposits to wealth management products [6]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The banking sector's performance over the last month shows a 2.1% increase, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has seen a 0.2% increase [3]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Several banks are highlighted with their respective stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025E, and 2026E, all rated as "Buy": - Hangzhou Bank (600926.SH): Price 17.16, EPS 2.91 for 2026E [8] - Nanjing Bank (601009.SH): Price 11.18, EPS 1.94 for 2026E [8] - Shanghai Bank (601229.SH): Price 9.87, EPS 1.74 for 2026E [8] - Ningbo Bank (002142.SZ): Price 31.15, EPS 4.76 for 2026E [8] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398.SH): Price 7.20, EPS 1.03 for 2026E [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, highlighting the potential for earnings recovery and structural opportunities in the context of macroeconomic policies [4]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to experience earnings elasticity driven by optimized funding costs and the potential for increased non-interest income [4]. - The report forecasts a year-on-year revenue growth of 3.42% and net profit growth of 3.3% for listed banks in 2026, with Q1 expected to show a revenue increase of 2.8% and net profit growth of 2.58% [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Drivers of Banking Performance Improvement in 2026 - Credit growth remains stable with a focus on structural optimization, despite weaker-than-expected credit performance in January [6][7]. - The re-pricing of liabilities is anticipated to be a major source of earnings elasticity, with a significant amount of long-term deposits maturing in 2026 [4][39]. - The trend of deposit migration continues, alongside a recovery in the capital markets, which is expected to enhance non-interest income through wealth management and distribution of financial products [4][6]. - The initial recovery in the bond market, combined with a low base from the previous year, may boost Q1 performance, although challenges in the capital market are expected throughout the year [4][6]. - Risk clearance is accelerating, with sufficient provisions available for potential losses, particularly in the real estate sector [4][6]. 2. Performance Recovery Expected, Q1 Forecast to Exceed Last Year - The report anticipates that Q1 performance will be better than the same period last year, driven by optimized funding costs, potential for increased non-interest income, and the release of provisions [4][6]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the banking sector, emphasizing the continued accumulation of favorable factors for bank operations and the potential for earnings elasticity in 2026 [4][6]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Changshu Bank [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the banking sector in China, particularly the performance of covered banks during the earnings season for 4Q25 and the outlook for 2026 [1][4][30]. Core Themes and Financial Projections - **Profitability Expectations**: Average Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) growth for covered banks in 4Q25 is expected to be 4%, with profit growth projected at 3% [1][6]. - **Revenue Growth**: Overall revenue growth for banks is anticipated to improve in 2026, although profit growth will show divergence among banks [1][30]. - **Stock Recommendations**: CMB is recommended as a stock with high dividends and high EPS growth, maintaining a Buy rating with revised target prices of Rmb 54.71/HK$ 53.44 for A/H shares [1][30]. Key Financial Metrics - **Net Interest Margin (NIM)**: Expected to stabilize around 1.35% in 2026/2027 after a slight decline from 1.39% in 2025. The average decline for covered banks is projected to narrow to -6/-6 basis points YoY in 4Q25/1Q26 [8][11][30]. - **Loan Growth**: Anticipated to remain stable at 8% YoY in 2026, with specific banks like CMB and PAB expected to see loan growth of 7% and 6% respectively [24][25][30]. Consumer Finance and Fee Income - **Consumer Finance Recovery**: Expected to support loan growth, with banks forecasting better retail loan growth in 2026 compared to 2025. However, the sluggish property market may keep retail loan growth under pressure in the short term [32][36]. - **Fee Income Growth**: Projected to be 16% YoY in 4Q25 and 7% YoY in 2026 for covered banks, driven by a recovery in capital market-related fee income [38][47]. Asset Quality and Provisions - **Retail NPL Ratios**: Retail Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratios are rising, but banks that have proactively managed retail risks may see a quicker recovery. For instance, PAB's retail NPL ratio has declined [53][57]. - **Mortgage Loans**: Considered high-quality assets with low default rates, although NPL ratios are on an upward trend. The focus will be on banks achieving positive mortgage growth despite weak property sales [54][61]. Investment Income and Revenue Sensitivity - **Investment Income**: Expected to show YoY negative growth in 4Q25 due to a high base effect, but a QoQ rebound is anticipated in 1Q26 driven by bond investments and slight interest rate declines [65][69]. - **Reduced Sensitivity**: The impact of investment income on bank revenue is expected to diminish, with forecasts indicating flat growth in 2026/27 [66][68]. Conclusion - The banking sector in China is poised for a mixed performance in 2026, with expectations of improved revenue growth but divergent profit growth among banks. Key areas of focus include consumer finance recovery, asset quality management, and the stabilization of NIM.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the banking sector, indicating a defensive value amidst external uncertainties affecting the A-share market [2][5]. Core Insights - The "Two Sessions" have provided financial signals, focusing on monetary policy, financial risk prevention, and institutional reforms. The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, prioritizing stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [5][11]. - The report anticipates that the frequency of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts will remain consistent with the previous year, with a lower probability of implementation in the first half of the year. The growth rate of social financing (社融) and M2 may fall below 8% [5][11]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be emphasized, with an expected net investment scale exceeding 540.5 billion in 2025, focusing on supporting domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [6][11]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Dynamics - The report highlights the successful convening of the "Two Sessions" and the focus on monetary policy and financial risk prevention by the People's Bank of China [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a decline of 2.30% in the Wind All A Index, while the Shenwan banking sector increased by 1.64% [17]. Data Overview - The central bank's net withdrawal this week was 1.56 trillion, with a decrease in various interest rates, including the Shibor rates [4][25]. - The report provides detailed data on the performance of various banking stocks, including their dividend rates and price-to-earnings ratios [22]. Banking Sector Trends - The report indicates that the net interest margin decline is stabilizing, suggesting that revenue challenges for commercial banks may be easing. It recommends focusing on city commercial banks in key development areas and national banks with lower non-performing asset pressures [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its undervaluation and high dividend characteristics, with a focus on structural transformation and opportunities arising from the new 14th Five-Year Plan [7][8]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic policy is focused on stability and progress, which is beneficial for the banking sector's operational fundamentals. The government has set a GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% for 2026, emphasizing quality and efficiency in economic growth [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and deepening fiscal-financial collaboration to optimize structure and increase incremental growth. Key measures include issuing special bonds and new policy financial tools to support consumption and investment [7][30]. - The banking sector is expected to undergo structural adjustments, model transformations, and valuation re-evaluations, with a focus on comprehensive financial services in areas like technology innovation and new production capabilities [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Macroeconomic Policy - The government aims to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations while promoting quality growth. The focus is on reform measures and macro policies working in tandem to enhance economic cycles [9][10]. 2. Expanding Domestic Demand - The report outlines a dual approach to stimulate consumption and investment, with a focus on fiscal-financial collaboration. A special long-term bond of 250 billion yuan is allocated to support consumption upgrades, and a 1 trillion yuan fund is established to promote domestic demand [30][31]. 3. Financial Sector Dynamics - The report discusses the "anti-involution" trend in the financial sector, which aims to reshape pricing and operational models. This is expected to improve the pricing ecology and enhance net interest margins for banks [7][8]. 4. Risk Mitigation - Continuous risk mitigation efforts are highlighted, particularly in the real estate sector, where asset quality is expected to stabilize. The focus is on balancing risk prevention with development [7][8]. 5. Long-term Investment Opportunities - The report notes that long-term capital inflows are accelerating, which will help realize the banking sector's dividend value. The structural transformation and energy shift under the new 14th Five-Year Plan are anticipated to create new investment opportunities [7][8]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific banks for investment, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, and others, citing their potential for growth and stability in the current economic environment [7][8].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement of a new round of capital injection for state-owned commercial banks in China, with a plan to issue 300 billion yuan in special government bonds to support capital replenishment [1] - The first round of capital injection in 2025 involved 500 billion yuan for four major banks, and the current focus is on Industrial and Agricultural Banks, which are expected to receive priority in this round of funding [1][2] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios for Industrial Bank and Agricultural Bank were 13.57% and 11.16%, respectively, both meeting regulatory requirements despite year-on-year declines [1] Group 2 - The need for continuous capital replenishment for state-controlled large banks arises from the pressure on net interest margins and profitability, limiting their ability to accumulate internal capital [2] - The issuance of special government bonds is part of a strategic deployment to enhance the stability of large commercial banks and their role in supporting the real economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government plans to issue 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the capital replenishment of state-owned commercial banks, following a previous issuance of 500 billion yuan in 2025 for four major banks [3][4]. Group 1: Capital Replenishment Plans - The second batch of capital replenishment for state-owned banks is underway, with the first batch having successfully injected 500 billion yuan into four major banks, including China Bank, Postal Savings Bank, Transportation Bank, and Construction Bank, totaling 520 billion yuan [3][4]. - The issuance of special bonds is aimed at enhancing the asset allocation capacity and service capabilities of these banks to support the real economy and ensure sustainable development [4][5]. Group 2: Regulatory and Market Context - The six major state-owned banks are classified as systemically important banks, facing higher capital adequacy requirements. The government’s move to inject capital is seen as a proactive measure to alleviate pressures from narrowing net interest margins and slowing profits [4][5]. - The capital adequacy ratios required for these banks are set at 9.5% for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, 9% for Agricultural Bank of China, China Bank, and Construction Bank, and 8.5% for Transportation Bank [5][6]. Group 3: Current Capital Adequacy Status - As of the end of Q3 2025, the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China were 13.57% and 11.16%, respectively, showing a decline from the end of 2024 [6].

Market Overview - The mobile banking app industry in China is transitioning to a mature stage, with user behavior becoming more efficient as the user base stabilizes. The focus is shifting from prolonged browsing to high-frequency, short-duration, and purpose-driven usage, necessitating refined operations [1][7][9]. Technology Trends - AI and ecosystem integration are driving a transformation in service delivery. AI and large models are becoming core infrastructures, enhancing business operations and interactions, while native adaptations and smart risk control improve user experience and security [2][11]. Policy Environment - Regulatory frameworks are tightening, emphasizing compliance and innovation. The "Five Major Articles" guide innovation directions, while new rules on data security and existing user base management establish compliance as a prerequisite for development [3][14]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is increasingly defined by ecological and regional capabilities. State-owned banks leverage embedded ecosystems for a competitive edge, while joint-stock banks survive through professional differentiation. Regional banks grow through local market penetration, and private banks are becoming relatively marginalized [4][16]. User Engagement and Demographics - The core user demographic for mobile banking apps consists predominantly of males (56.7%), with 63.3% under 40 years old and 66.5% being married. The user base is heavily concentrated in new first-tier and lower-tier cities, with a significant portion of users belonging to the middle-income group [6][45][48]. User Behavior Insights - From March 2023 to December 2025, the frequency of app usage is expected to slightly decline, while the effective usage duration will stabilize after a decrease. This indicates a shift from passive browsing to more efficient, functional usage, highlighting the need for banks to enhance service value and user experience [9][11]. Monthly Active Users (MAU) Rankings - The top mobile banking apps by average MAU in 2025 include Agricultural Bank of China (249 million), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (194 million), and China Construction Bank (108 million). The rankings reflect a strong presence of state-owned banks in the top tier [5][18][21]. Case Studies of Leading Banks - Agricultural Bank of China aims to enhance user experience through its mobile banking version 11.0, focusing on intelligent service matching and comprehensive security [30]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China emphasizes smart financial services with its app version 1.0, offering features like wealth management and consumer loans [33]. - Postal Savings Bank of China targets a more companion-like service approach with its app version 11.0, enhancing user engagement [35]. - China Merchants Bank leads among joint-stock banks with a focus on wealth management and digital loan processing in its app version 14.0 [37]. - Ping An Bank's app version 8.0 emphasizes AI-driven service enhancements and personalized insights [39]. - Beijing Bank's app version 10.0 aims to provide a comprehensive financial ecosystem for users [41]. Future Outlook - The mobile banking app market is expected to continue evolving, with a focus on integrating advanced technologies and enhancing user engagement through tailored services, particularly for the core demographic of young and middle-aged users [11][14][48].