又一家华尔街投行下调中国软件业评级:AI颠覆,估值重构!
硬AI·2026-02-10 07:03

Core Viewpoint - UBS has downgraded the rating of the Chinese software industry, indicating that generative AI is disrupting the traditional SaaS logic, forcing software companies to shift from high-margin standardized subscriptions to low-margin customized services, leading to "revenue growth without profit" [2][4] Group 1: Valuation Changes - The valuation logic for leading Chinese software companies has historically relied on "convergence premium," betting that they would achieve high-profit standardized subscription models similar to Salesforce or Adobe [8] - UBS believes this logic has been fundamentally undermined by AI, with stock prices of leading US software companies dropping by 10%-40% amid the decline of SaaS subscription model premiums [11] - The valuation framework for the Chinese software industry is shifting away from SaaS towards traditional IT service valuations, meaning P/E or EV/FCF will replace EV/Sales as the new pricing anchor [12] Group 2: Revenue Growth vs. Profitability - UBS cites data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showing that while revenue growth in the Chinese software industry has accelerated since early 2025, profit margins have declined [13] - This indicates a harsh reality where AI has increased IT spending, but the demand is not directed towards standardized software products [14] - The combination of increased spending on AI and the need for extensive customization means that revenue growth does not equate to profit margin expansion, potentially dragging down profitability due to heavy customization demands [15][17] Group 3: Challenges in AI Monetization - UBS identifies three bottlenecks in software companies' ability to monetize AI: insufficient AI capabilities, immature digital ecosystems, and credibility issues regarding AI expertise compared to startups and cloud vendors [15] - Despite these challenges, opportunities remain for companies that can provide end-to-end solutions, understand vertical industries, and cross-sell traditional digital products [16]

又一家华尔街投行下调中国软件业评级:AI颠覆,估值重构! - Reportify