回调不是虚惊一场，科技股投资开始“去伪求真”

Group 1 - The article discusses a crisis of confidence in the AI narrative among global tech investors, with significant stock price declines in both US and Chinese markets [3][4]. - Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, defended the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending, which led to a temporary rebound in AI-related stocks [4][26]. - The article highlights that the capital market's expectations for AI are excessively high, requiring continuous performance that exceeds expectations to avoid severe stock price corrections [6][7]. Group 2 - AMD experienced a significant stock drop of 17.31% due to its revenue guidance not meeting overly optimistic expectations, despite being above analyst consensus [9]. - Similarly, Qualcomm's stock fell over 8% after it lowered its revenue guidance for mobile chips, reflecting the market's sensitivity to performance expectations [9]. - The article notes that the domestic AI chip leader, Cambricon, has also seen its stock decline by 21.96% this year, with a significant drop of 9.18% in a single day due to underwhelming performance forecasts [15][12]. Group 3 - Investors are increasingly concerned about the return on investment in AI, as high capital expenditures from major tech companies like Google and Amazon raise questions about future profitability [18][19]. - The SaaS industry is facing a survival crisis due to the emergence of AI tools that threaten traditional business models, leading to significant stock declines in major SaaS companies [22][23]. - The article emphasizes that if SaaS businesses are replaced by AI, it could negatively impact demand for computing power, affecting companies like Nvidia [24]. Group 4 - The macroeconomic environment, particularly concerns about potential tightening monetary policy under a new Federal Reserve chair, has contributed to the decline in tech stock valuations [28][29]. - Recent political developments suggest that fears of immediate monetary tightening may be alleviated, leading to a rebound in tech stocks [31]. - The upcoming release of key macroeconomic data, including non-farm payrolls and CPI, is critical for determining the future trajectory of tech stocks [33][34]. Group 5 - The article concludes that the recent market corrections are a rational adjustment rather than a full-blown collapse, with a focus on distinguishing between genuine tech companies and those lacking solid performance [38][41]. - The investment strategy should shift from indiscriminate buying to careful selection of companies that can convert capital expenditures into actual cash flow [39][40]. - The tech sector is expected to experience differentiation, with "pseudo-tech stocks" facing potential declines while core assets with technological advantages may present buying opportunities [41][42].