Ray Dalio：美国处于秩序崩溃与内战边缘，黄金是唯一避险方舟

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio warns that the United States is in the "fifth stage" of the empire cycle, on the brink of order collapse and conflict [2][5][25] Group 1: Current Economic and Political Landscape - The U.S. is experiencing extreme polarization and debt imbalance, characterized by a significant wealth gap and political extremism [3][6] - Dalio cites that approximately 25% of the population is willing to engage in violence for their political faction, indicating severe societal risks [6] - The current debt and political turmoil lead to a situation where the central bank's money printing to address deficits will result in currency devaluation [3][7] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Dalio emphasizes that gold is the only "non-debt" asset and recommends investors allocate 5%-15% of their portfolios to gold [3][10][43] - He distinguishes between "wealth" and "money," suggesting that liquidity is crucial during crises, and advocates for asset diversification to mitigate potential risks [4][11] Group 3: Societal Recommendations - Dalio advises individuals to maintain financial discipline, save more than they spend, and consider relocating to stable regions to avoid potential social unrest [11][12] - He notes a trend of capital and population moving from high-tax, high-conflict areas to more stable and vibrant locations [12]