贝森特重磅表态，事关美联储缩表

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, indicated that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to quickly reduce its balance sheet, even with the nomination of a critic of the bond-buying program, suggesting a cautious and wait-and-see approach to balance sheet management [2][4][7]. Group 1: Policy Expectations - Becerra emphasized that any adjustments to the balance sheet will depend on the Federal Reserve's own decisions, and if a "plentiful reserves" policy is adopted, a larger balance sheet will be necessary [4][7]. - He projected that the Federal Reserve might take at least a year to decide on its future course of action regarding the balance sheet, providing a longer buffer for investors to assess the liquidity environment [4][7]. Group 2: Historical Context of the Balance Sheet - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded significantly during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, peaking at $9 trillion in the summer of 2022 [9]. - Following this peak, the Fed initiated a quantitative tightening process, allowing its assets to mature without reinvestment, which is expected to reduce the balance sheet to $6.6 trillion by the end of 2025 [9]. Group 3: Nominee's Position and Policy Goals - The focus on the new Fed Chair nominee, Waller, reveals a potential conflict between aggressive balance sheet reduction and the goal of lowering mortgage rates, as a reduction typically exerts upward pressure on long-term rates [12][13]. - Becerra's comments suggest that even with Waller's hawkish stance, a more cautious strategy may prevail due to multiple policy objectives and real-world constraints [13].