铝 | 氧化铝：亏损面加大，价格有望否极泰来

Industry Overview - As of January 2026, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production decreased by 1.8% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, with a total capacity of 110.32 million tons, reflecting a slight contraction in supply [1] - The industry faces significant losses, with 62.85 million tons of production capacity (64.9%) operating at a complete cost loss and 23.05 million tons (23.8%) at a cash cost loss, indicating a widening loss margin compared to December 2025 [1] Commentary - The expanding loss margin in the alumina industry suggests that supply contraction may stimulate a price rebound. Although the industry currently maintains a supply surplus, the high percentage of loss-making capacity indicates that prolonged losses could lead to production shutdowns, which would drive prices up. Short-term supply contraction is evident as maintenance capacity has started to increase, reaching 1.5 million tons (1.6%) in the last week of January 2026 [2] - The trend of "anti-involution" in the alumina industry is expected to reshape the market dynamics, focusing on stricter management and optimized project layouts. This includes rigorous compliance checks and monitoring of existing projects, as well as ensuring new projects meet national regulatory requirements to prevent chaotic investments, which may suppress future supply and reshape the supply-demand balance [2] Guinea's Impact - Guinea significantly influences global bauxite supply, accounting for 40.6% of global production and 74.3% of China's imported bauxite in 2025. The potential changes in mining policies following the new president's inauguration in 2026 could disrupt the global bauxite supply landscape, potentially leading to a price reversal [3]