国泰海通｜轻工：出口链行业专题二：行业比较与竞争要素挖掘

Core Insights - The source of company growth lies in the alignment between industry characteristics and its own competitive strengths [1] Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Excess profits of leading companies in the export chain often stem from precise segmentation within the industry, cost control know-how, and differentiated product and channel operation capabilities [2] - In growth sectors, leading companies in niche markets can more easily differentiate themselves, forming alpha. For example, in niche markets like artificial turf and pulp molding, despite high industry growth rates, the limited market capacity and few new entrants allow leading companies to achieve cost advantages, with market shares often exceeding 20% and maintaining high profitability (net profit margin of 15%-20%, ROE over 20%) [2] - In mature sectors, alpha is difficult to manifest on the cost side; excess capabilities come from branding, product innovation, and channel strategies. In industries with single-digit growth, domestic companies find it challenging to differentiate on costs and must focus on product and channel innovation [2] Group 2: Trends in Procurement and Supply Chain - There is a clear trend towards domestic procurement in the U.S., with Home Depot sourcing over 50% of its products domestically, and Lowe's sourcing 60% domestically and nearly 20% from China. Both companies are advancing supply chain diversification and adopting mixed pricing strategies [3] - Since 2020, companies in the light industry supply chain have begun exploring production capacity layouts outside Southeast Asia to better avoid geopolitical conflicts, achieve agile supply chain responses, and maintain customer relationships, with North America (U.S. and Mexico) being the primary choice [3] - The introduction of reciprocal tariffs in the U.S. by 2025, with Southeast Asia generally facing a tax rate around 20%, will further accelerate the transfer of production capacity from Southeast Asia [3]