国泰海通｜非银：权益市场火热，居民边际配置权益资产

Core Viewpoint - By December 2025, residents' asset allocation is primarily focused on deposits, with a marginal increase in equity investments. Securities firms will benefit multidimensionally as residents' funds enter the market [1]. Group 1: Asset Allocation - As of December 2025, the total market stock of wealth management products available for residents reached 352.5 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter change of +1.05% and a year-on-year change of +10.4%. The net increase in value was 3.7 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter change of +364.2% [1]. - The incremental growth of various wealth management products includes public funds (+695.7 billion yuan), private funds (+59.3 billion yuan), private asset management (-206.2 billion yuan), bank wealth management (-122.3 billion yuan), and deposits (+2.585 trillion yuan), contributing 19%, 2%, -6%, -3%, and +70% respectively [1]. Group 2: Market Performance - The equity market showed strong performance, with major indices rising as residents' risk appetite increased, leading to a shift from deposits to higher-yield assets. The stock fund index, mixed fund index, bond fund index, and money market fund index saw changes of +2.12%, +3.28%, +0.17%, and +0.11% respectively [2]. - By the end of December, the total market size of public funds reached 37.7 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter change of +1.88%. The sizes of stock funds, mixed funds, bond funds, and QDII saw quarter-on-quarter changes of +4.39%, +2.13%, +3.92%, and +1.64% respectively [2]. - New fund issuance in December totaled 113.22 billion units, with a quarter-on-quarter change of +19.72%. Equity fund issuance decreased by -10.73%, while bond fund issuance increased by +136.82% [2]. Group 3: Private Funds and Asset Management - The stock of private funds reached 22.2 trillion yuan by the end of December, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of +0.27%. The newly registered private fund scale was 98.9 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter change of +38.6% [3]. - The stock of private asset management reached 12.3 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter change of -1.65%. The year-on-year changes for equity, fixed income, commodity and financial derivatives, and mixed categories were -2.35%, -4.11%, +73.61%, and +38.69% respectively [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The low interest rate environment and the profit effect from the equity market are driving residents' funds into the market steadily. Securities firms are expected to benefit from the influx of incremental funds. It is anticipated that firms adapting to the transition from vertical to public flow will perform better [4]. - The combination of fixed income and equity is expected to be a core strategy for this round of residents' incremental market entry, with a focus on firms that balance both capabilities [4].