光大证券研究·2026-02-10 23:07Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical factors are profoundly reshaping the global interest rate curve through a "security" premium, with the rise in long-term rates being a structural change driven by fiscal expansion for national security rather than simple cyclical fluctuations. High inflation-driven fiscal expansion has significantly weakened the traditional safe-haven characteristics of bonds. The macro narrative brought by Trump will continue to dominate asset price fluctuations ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, with RMB-denominated assets already showing "safe haven" attributes [4]. Group 1: Long-term Interest Rates - The synchronized rise in long-term interest rates across major economies is not merely driven by economic cycles but represents a structural shift under geopolitical fragmentation. Concerns over uncontrolled fiscal deficit expansion and tariff conflicts following Trump's "first hundred days" have led markets to reprice long-term inflation and sovereign credit risks [5]. Group 2: Pricing of Term Premium - The term premium is undergoing a paradigm shift, where national security, supply chain restructuring, and technological competition are replacing sovereign credit as the new anchor for long-term bond pricing. The "weaponization" of U.S. Treasuries has exposed the wave of "safety" for reserve assets, while competitive fiscal expansion, re-industrialization, and resource hoarding have completely disrupted the self-regulating supply-demand mechanism [6]. Group 3: Potential Disruption of Narratives - The current steepening of the interest rate curve began with Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, but the sustainability of this political momentum faces serious challenges from the midterm elections. If political momentum wanes, the "security premium" logic may weaken, leading to significant volatility in commodity and precious metal prices. However, narrative trading will still dominate the market in the first half of 2026, with caution advised for potential bidirectional fluctuations due to policy adjustments in the second half. In this context, RMB-denominated assets stand out as a "safe haven" due to robust fiscal discipline and stable currency value [7].