【电新】美国缺电研究：数据中心建设重塑美国电力格局——电力AI系列报告五（殷中枢/郝骞/和霖/邓怡亮）

Core Viewpoint - The primary reason for the electricity shortage in the United States is the continuous increase in capital expenditure expectations for data centers, leading to a significant upward revision of peak load growth forecasts from 64GW in 2024 to 166GW in 2025 by Grid Strategies [4] Group 1: Electricity Supply and Demand Dynamics - Future electricity generation in the U.S. will primarily rely on gas power, with the EIA projecting the addition of 7GW of gas power generation in 2026, 7GW in 2027, 16GW in 2028, 8GW in 2029, and 7GW in 2030, while other stable power sources will see minimal additions [5] - As of mid-October 2025, the planned capacity for data center reserve projects in the U.S. has reached 245GW, indicating that stable power sources alone will struggle to meet the increasing peak load demands driven by data centers [5] - Without considering regulatory power sources, projected load gaps by 2030 under various data center construction scenarios are estimated to be 12GW, 45GW, 75GW, and 167GW, respectively; however, with regulatory power sources, these gaps can be mitigated [5] Group 2: Regional Load Growth Characteristics - The growth in peak electricity load in the U.S. will be concentrated in regions with high data center construction, particularly ERCOT and PJM, with Virginia and Texas being key areas for data center capacity [6] - In PJM, the summer peak load is expected to rise from 156GW in 2026 to 222GW in 2036, leading to a decrease in power reserve margins below the 20% safety threshold, causing capacity prices to surge from $28.92 per MW-day in 2024-2025 to $269.92 per MW-day in 2025-2026 [6] - ERCOT's advantages include abundant natural gas resources and faster interconnection approvals, with data center applications totaling 226GW, including 164GW for data centers, which will increase summer peak load from 87GW in 2025 to 138GW in 2030 [7] Group 3: Infrastructure Development and Policy Adjustments - PJM is accelerating power source construction through policy adjustments, with 46GW of generation projects having signed interconnection agreements and 11.8GW of gas power projects entering a fast-track approval process as of June 2025 [7] - ERCOT is also expediting the construction of energy sources that enhance system reliability, with 441GW of generation projects in the interconnection application queue, including 175GW of storage and 54GW of gas power by the end of 2025 [7]