中金 • 全球研究 | 泰国大选初定乾坤，市场指数应声上涨

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Thai general election in February 2026 is expected to be a turning point for the political landscape, potentially catalyzing economic recovery despite short-term policy adjustments and market volatility [2]. Election Overview - The election will select 500 members of the House of Representatives, with initial polls indicating approximately 59.8% of voters supporting constitutional amendments [2]. - The political landscape has seen frequent changes, with three prime ministers in three years, culminating in the dissolution of the House of Representatives by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul in December 2025 [2]. Election Results - Preliminary results show the Palang Pracharath Party (PPP) leading with an estimated 193 seats, while the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) is projected to secure around 118 seats [4]. - The victory of the PPP is viewed as favorable for the market, ensuring policy continuity and accelerating the implementation of existing agendas [4]. Government Formation Timeline - The government transition period is expected to last four months, with the election commission required to certify at least 95% of the seats by April 9, 2026 [6]. - The first parliamentary meeting is to be held within 15 days of certification, with the prime minister election anticipated to conclude by early May [6]. Economic Opportunities Post-Election - If the PPP wins, political risk premiums are likely to decrease, benefiting several sectors: - Consumer and Retail: The PPP's economic commitments include ongoing fiscal support and consumer stimulus policies, which are expected to boost the fast-moving consumer goods and retail sectors [8]. - Infrastructure and Construction: The PPP prioritizes infrastructure development, particularly in secondary road networks and branch railways, benefiting the construction industry [8]. - Banking and Financial Services: Political stability may restore investor confidence and attract capital inflows, improving the asset quality of the banking sector in the long term [8]. - Establishment-Linked Enterprises: The PPP's victory is seen as advantageous for large corporate groups closely tied to traditional power centers [8]. Market Reaction - Following the election, the Thai stock market reacted positively, with the SET index rising by 3.3% and a projected P/E ratio of 15.2 for 2026 [10]. - The transportation and logistics sector surged by 7.5%, driven by strong earnings growth expectations, while the financial and securities sector saw a 5.5% increase [10]. - Thailand has recorded significant foreign capital inflows, with a net inflow of $473 million in the equity market and $1.7 billion in the bond market since the beginning of 2026 [10].