中金 • 联合研究 | 助力房地产风险化解的AMC作用初探

Core Viewpoint - The effectiveness of real estate debt reduction in China is beginning to show, but significant challenges remain. A systematic approach to asset revitalization is needed, with financial asset management companies (AMCs) potentially playing a unique role in managing non-performing assets [1][2]. Group 1: Real Estate Debt Situation - Since 2022, the scale of real estate debt in China has been reduced, but it has not yet reached acceptable levels. The process of destocking and deleveraging in the industry will be long-term [2]. - By the end of 2025, the total asset scale of Chinese real estate companies is expected to be approximately 103 trillion yuan, with total liabilities around 79 trillion yuan, reflecting a cumulative decrease of about 10.7 trillion yuan and 12.3 trillion yuan from the end of 2021 [5]. - The structure of liabilities remains a concern, with interest-bearing liabilities expected to be around 21.4 trillion yuan (27.3% of total liabilities) and non-interest-bearing liabilities around 57.3 trillion yuan [5]. Group 2: AMC's Role in Debt Reduction - AMCs are positioned to play a crucial role in the revitalization of real estate assets, focusing on risk resolution and participating in real estate restructuring as a primary business direction [2][31]. - The estimated annual asset scale that AMCs can invest in the real estate sector is in the hundreds of billions yuan, with the potential to leverage even larger asset scales [2]. - AMCs have been supporting real estate restructuring through self-funding, external funding leverage, and resource integration, emphasizing both the "blood transfusion" function of capital injection and the "blood production" capability of resource coordination [2]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Directions - The debt reduction process has shown structural characteristics, with the most significant reductions in contract liabilities, reflecting a policy focus on ensuring housing delivery [6][8]. - The future focus of debt reduction efforts may need to adjust, particularly as the task of ensuring housing delivery is largely complete, and the quality risk of commercial bank loans remains a concern [8][9]. - The overall financial health of the industry is still suboptimal, with the ratio of annual sales to outstanding debt indicating significant room for improvement [9][10]. Group 4: AMC Transformation and Capability Building - Upgrading the capability to manage non-performing assets is critical for AMCs, requiring the establishment of expert teams and a supportive external policy environment [3]. - Collaboration with external resources, particularly with investment banks, banks, and operational institutions, can enhance efficiency [3]. - Transitioning from a "heavy" to a "light" operational model is a long-term goal, relying on differentiated active management capabilities of alternative assets [3]. Group 5: Systematic Asset Revitalization - A systematic asset revitalization framework is essential for addressing the challenges in the real estate sector, with AMCs potentially serving as a bridge among various stakeholders [18][20]. - The development of a multi-layered financial market is crucial for facilitating asset circulation and revitalization, with AMCs playing a pivotal role in this process [19][24]. - The establishment of a robust securitization market, particularly through REITs, is seen as a key factor in enhancing asset pricing and liquidity [23].