非农数据临阵预警：申万期货早间评论-20260211

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - API data indicates a significant increase in US crude oil inventories by 13.4 million barrels last week [1] - Indirect negotiations between Iran and the US in Muscat have shown positive initial outcomes, with both parties agreeing to continue discussions [3] - Kazakhstan's oil exports may decline by up to 35% in February due to slow recovery from a fire at the Tengiz oil field [3] Group 2: Agricultural Products - US soybean export inspections decreased by 14% week-on-week but increased by 3% year-on-year, totaling 1,136,099 tons [1] - Cumulative soybean export inspections for the 2025/26 season reached 23,136,299 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 34.4% [1] - Brazil's soybean harvest rate reached 17.4%, up from 11.2% the previous week, indicating ongoing harvest pressure [27] Group 3: Employment and Economic Indicators - Non-farm payroll data is expected to show an increase of 69,000 jobs in January, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.4% [1] - A significant downward revision of 911,000 jobs for the previous year is anticipated, which may impact hiring trends [1] - The White House's economic advisor has stated that lower employment data should not cause panic [1] Group 4: Financial Market Overview - US stock indices showed mixed results, with the media sector leading gains while the real estate sector lagged [4] - Financing balance increased by 523 million yuan to 26,475.69 billion yuan as of February 9 [4] - The market outlook for February remains positive, supported by seasonal recovery and policy benefits from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4] Group 5: Precious Metals - Precious metals are in a phase of consolidation as the market awaits US employment and inflation data, which may influence future interest rate expectations [2][18] - The recent volatility in precious metals has been attributed to profit-taking following a rapid increase in prices since January [18] - Long-term factors supporting gold, such as de-dollarization and central bank purchases, remain intact, with expectations for gold to return to a steady upward trend [18] Group 6: Domestic Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to maintain liquidity [8] - The central bank's report indicates that adjustments in residents' asset allocation will eventually return to the banking system, ensuring liquidity stability [8]