热点思考 | 积极因素正在累积（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The most challenging period for the real estate sector may have passed, with signs of marginal recovery in supply and demand. The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transaction area in major cities narrowed by over 5 percentage points to -14.7% in the last 3-4 weeks before the festival [3][9][47] - Government revenue from real estate funds saw a year-on-year decline narrowing to -11.7% in December 2025, while land transfer income decreased by 22.9%, a reduction of 3.9 percentage points compared to November [3][9][47] - Local governments have introduced breakthrough policies to support the acquisition of second-hand housing, with Shanghai's pilot program being particularly noteworthy. The program focuses on acquiring small second-hand apartments under 70 square meters in key urban areas [3][9][48] Group 2 - Multiple ministries have strengthened policy coordination, with fiscal and financial policies working together to support three key areas: consumption, equipment investment, and the private economy. In January, the net financing scale of government bonds increased by over 280 billion yuan year-on-year [4][20][49] - The total issuance of government bonds, including new general bonds and special bonds, reached 12,915 billion yuan by February 8, 2026, an increase of 2,860 billion yuan year-on-year [4][20][49] - The central bank announced an increase in the quota for re-loans for technological innovation and transformation by 400 billion yuan, aiming to stimulate private investment and support small and medium-sized enterprises [4][25][49] Group 3 - Local governments have proactively advanced economic work, moving the timing of policy deployment earlier. Some regions have held their first meetings of the year immediately after New Year's Day to kickstart annual work [6][32][51] - By the end of January, 20 provinces and cities had disclosed their GDP targets for 2026, with a weighted average of 5.1%, indicating a more pragmatic and positive outlook [6][35][51] - Investment growth targets show regional differentiation, with western regions demonstrating stronger momentum, such as Xinjiang setting a target of around 8% for investment growth [6][35][51] Group 4 - The 2026 Spring Festival will feature the longest holiday in history, making holiday consumption a key driver for boosting first-quarter domestic demand and solidifying the foundation for economic recovery throughout the year. Policies have shifted from traditional physical consumption stimulation to a balanced focus on both physical and service consumption [7][42][52] - Local governments have implemented significant consumption-boosting policies, including the issuance of large consumer vouchers and cultural tourism subsidies in regions like Henan and Hubei [7][42][52] - Various regions are launching rich cultural tourism activities and distributing Spring Festival consumption vouchers to enhance consumer engagement during the holiday [7][42][52]