暴涨50%空头死扛不退！泡泡玛特正面临一场史诗级“逼空”风暴？

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Pop Mart has surged by 50% recently, yet short sellers have increased their positions, leading to a highly risky situation with a short squeeze risk score of 100, indicating extreme market tension [1][5][13] Group 1: Stock Performance and Short Selling - Despite a 50% increase in stock price within a month, short sellers have not retreated; instead, they are building a dangerous confrontation [4] - According to S3 Partners, the short interest in Pop Mart has risen sharply from 2% to 16% of the free float, indicating a significant increase in bearish sentiment [5][6] - The current short positions are much larger than institutional long positions, creating an extremely crowded one-sided bet that remains unyielding [6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Analyst Insights - The market is experiencing a stark divide regarding Pop Mart's future growth trajectory, with management attempting to bolster stock prices through buybacks while short sellers remain skeptical about overseas market performance [9][10] - Analyst Melinda Hu from Bernstein noted that short sellers are particularly focused on the slowing sales trends in key overseas markets, especially the U.S., which has led to increased short interest [10][11] - Despite management's aggressive buyback of HKD 347 million (approximately USD 45 million), short sellers have not been swayed, as short positions increased from 44 million shares to 60 million shares within a week [11] Group 3: Potential Market Volatility - The ongoing tug-of-war between the company's defensive measures and the offensive strategies of short sellers is escalating, with the risk of significant volatility looming [12][13] - The situation is at a critical juncture, where either a forced buy-in by short sellers due to margin pressure could trigger a price surge, or deteriorating fundamentals could burst the stock price bubble [13]