美股IPO·2026-02-11 04:01Core Viewpoint - The AI capital expenditure is projected to reach $740 billion by 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 70%, which is consuming the operating cash flow of major US tech companies, with the exception of Microsoft, whose free cash flow may turn negative for others [1][6][12]. Group 1: AI Capital Expenditure - The combined capital expenditure guidance for major cloud providers, including Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, is approximately $650 billion for 2026 [4]. - Including Oracle and CoreWeave, the total capital expenditure rises to $740 billion, which is significantly higher than market expectations and represents a doubling of the anticipated growth rate [5][6]. - This $740 billion figure is close to the total annual operating cash flow of the entire large-scale cloud provider ecosystem [6]. Group 2: Cash Flow and Debt Implications - Goldman Sachs analysts indicate that if capital expenditures reach $700 billion in 2026, it would nearly equal the total operating cash flow of large-scale cloud providers [11]. - Only Microsoft is expected to maintain operating cash flow sufficient to cover capital expenditures by 2026, while other companies may exhaust their free cash flow even if stock buybacks are halted [12][16]. - AI-related debt constitutes about 14% of the US investment-grade bond market, indicating a significant shift of funds from the equity market to the debt market [18][23]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - Major tech companies are increasingly turning to the debt market to finance their AI expenditures, with Oracle issuing a record $25 billion bond and Google following with a $20 billion bond issuance [19][20]. - The demand for bonds remains strong, but signs of strain are beginning to appear, with widening spreads in investment-grade corporate bonds [26]. - The software industry is facing valuation challenges as AI tools threaten to render traditional software products obsolete, leading to a decline in software company bond prices [30][31]. Group 4: Strategic Dilemmas and Future Scenarios - Tech giants are caught in a "prisoner's dilemma," where the rational choice is to continue investing heavily in AI despite the risks of financial strain and potential market share loss [37][39]. - The outcome of this investment strategy hinges on the return on investment (ROI), with a significant gap between projected profits and required returns [40][41]. - Two potential scenarios are outlined: a bullish scenario where AI adoption mirrors cloud computing success, and a bearish scenario reminiscent of past tech failures, indicating that not all giants may achieve sufficient long-term profitability [44].