【广发宏观郭磊】通胀上行加快

Core Viewpoint - Inflation is accelerating, with January CPI showing a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the second consecutive month of positive growth. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3%, the highest in six months, surpassing similar periods in 2015 and 2018. January PPI increased by 0.4%, reaching the highest point since May 2022 [5][6][7]. Group 1: Inflation Data Analysis - January CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with the previous value. Core CPI rose by 0.3%, higher than the previous value of 0.2% and equal to January 2023's 0.4%, marking the highest since August 2025 [6]. - January PPI increased by 0.4%, matching the previous month and reaching the highest level since May 2022. The base period adjustment and weight changes had a minor impact on the data, with an estimated effect of 0.06-0.08 percentage points on month-on-month growth rates [7][8]. Group 2: Price Increases in CPI - Notable month-on-month price increases in CPI include seasonal rises in tourism and service prices, with tourism prices up by 1.8% and service prices up by 0.2%. Specific increases include airfare (5.7%) and travel agency fees (2.0%) [2][8]. - The "CPI within PPI" category for household appliances continued to rise by 0.7%, with year-on-year growth increasing from 5.9% to 6.6%. Communication tools also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, with year-on-year growth at 1.3% [2][8]. - Pork prices experienced their first month-on-month increase in six months, rising by 1.2% in January [2]. Group 3: Price Decreases in CPI - Certain categories, such as alcoholic beverages and rental housing, continued to show month-on-month declines. These categories are significant for the capital market, reflecting shifts in consumer behavior and economic cycles [2][9][10]. Group 4: PPI Price Increases - In January, prices for globally priced non-ferrous metals rose significantly, with non-ferrous metal mining and smelting increasing by 5.7% and 5.2%, respectively. Other sectors, including cement manufacturing and lithium-ion battery production, also saw increases [3][14][15]. - The automotive manufacturing sector reported zero growth, marking the first month without a decline in seven months. Prices in the AI industry chain, particularly for computer communication electronics, rose by 0.5% [3][16]. Group 5: Simulated Deflation Index - The simulated deflation index showed a year-on-year decline from -0.28% to -0.44% due to the timing of the Spring Festival, despite a month-on-month CPI increase. The index is expected to improve in February, potentially returning to around -0.28% [3][16].