研报 | 存储器涨势加剧终端售价压力，2026年全球手机产量恐面临下行风险

Core Insights - The global smartphone production is expected to decline by 10% in 2026 due to rising storage prices, with total production estimated at approximately 1.135 billion units [2] - In a bearish scenario, the decline could extend to 15% or more, affecting various brands differently based on their product structure and regional presence [2] Group 1: Storage Price Impact - The estimated contract price for mainstream storage (8GB + 256GB) in Q1 2026 has surged nearly 200% compared to the same period in 2025 [5] - The BOM cost share of storage in smartphones has increased from approximately 10-15% to 30-40% [5] - Brands are likely to raise terminal prices to maintain operations and may need to adjust product configurations in response to ongoing storage price increases [5] Group 2: Brand-Specific Production Outlook - Samsung, as the leading smartphone brand and a major player in the storage industry, is expected to see a decline in production, but the drop will be less severe due to its vertical integration advantages [6] - Apple, with a higher proportion of high-end models, is better positioned to absorb rising storage costs and has a consumer base more accepting of price adjustments, providing some support for its production performance [6] - Xiaomi and Transsion, which focus on low-end models, are more sensitive to cost fluctuations and are expected to experience significant production cuts in 2026 [6] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Market Dynamics - Brands operating primarily in the Chinese market, such as Vivo, Oppo, Xiaomi, and Honor, face not only storage cost pressures but also competition from Huawei, which is expected to have a more flexible pricing strategy [6] - Huawei is projected to have the smallest production adjustment among brands and may even experience growth despite the challenging environment [6] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - The current decline in terminal demand is triggered by rising storage prices, but the overall functionality of electronic devices has reached a level that satisfies most consumers' daily needs, leading to longer replacement cycles [7] - Even if storage prices stabilize in the future, the underlying structural changes in consumer behavior may not reverse in the short term [7]