全国房价止跌信号初现

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market is showing signs of recovery, with core city demand stabilizing and valuations reaching a bottom, suggesting a potential "small spring" in 2026, although a full market rebound still faces challenges [4][11][30]. Market Trends - As of January 2026, the year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transaction area in 22 cities narrowed from 26.8% to 13.0%, with a month-on-month increase in transaction area reaching 279.0 million square meters, the highest since June 2025, and a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [6][14]. - Real-time signing data from major cities indicates a significant improvement in second-hand housing transactions, with a 27.0% year-on-year increase and an 18.5% month-on-month increase in January 2026 [6][9]. Price Trends - The decline in second-hand housing prices has slowed, with the national average listing price in January 2026 decreasing by only 0.7% month-on-month, compared to a 1.3% decline in the previous six months [10][13]. - In January 2026, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 12,900 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month decline of 0.85%, indicating a narrowing of the price drop [13]. Regional Performance - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have shown strong performance in second-hand housing transactions, with Beijing's net signing volume exceeding 15,000 units in January, marking a stable trend above 14,000 units for three consecutive months [16][17]. - The "iceberg index" for January 2026 indicates a 14% month-on-month increase in real-time transactions across 26 key cities, with Xiamen leading at a 34% increase [18]. Policy Developments - Shanghai has initiated a program to purchase second-hand housing for rental purposes, focusing on small units and requiring buyers to also purchase new homes in the same district [39][40]. - The "old-for-new" policy aims to reduce transaction costs for buyers and improve the supply of rental housing, while also enhancing the liquidity of the new housing market [41][42]. Future Outlook - Experts anticipate a "small spring" in the real estate market, driven by improved demand in core cities and the release of pent-up demand as policies take effect [11][30][31]. - The overall recovery of the national housing market is expected to take time, with ongoing monitoring of key indicators such as price stability and transaction volumes necessary to assess the market's trajectory [35].