大涨超9%！碳酸锂站上15万关口，后市怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in lithium carbonate prices is driven by multiple factors, including supply agreements, policy support for energy storage, market sentiment, and seasonal demand expectations [3][4][5][6]. Supply Side Analysis - PLS and Tianyi Lithium Industry signed a two-year agreement for lithium spodumene concentrate with a minimum price of $1,000/ton, providing price stability and boosting market confidence in lithium prices [3]. - As of February 5, lithium carbonate production decreased to 21,800 tons, a 2.68% decline from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.81% [7]. - The supply is expected to contract further in February due to holiday-related production halts and maintenance, with CIF prices for 6.0% spodumene dropping to $2,000/ton, a decrease of $350/ton [8]. Demand Side Analysis - The domestic energy storage system bidding scale increased by 13.7% month-on-month in January, indicating strong demand growth supported by new policies [4]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is showing a divergence, with lithium iron phosphate maintaining a high capacity utilization rate of 73%, while ternary materials are at 62% due to declining sales from electric vehicle manufacturers [11]. - In January, China's automotive production and sales remained stable, with new energy vehicle sales showing a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [11]. Market Sentiment and Trading Dynamics - There was a net inflow of 1.1 billion yuan into lithium carbonate contracts, with bullish sentiment reflected in rising prices and increased trading volumes [5]. - The market is experiencing a seasonal rhythm, with expectations of demand recovery post-holiday, driven by factors such as electric vehicle exports and energy storage policy support [6]. - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased to 104,000 tons, a 0.73% decline, indicating a continued destocking trend across various market segments [14]. Summary of Market Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics indicate a strong upward trend in lithium carbonate prices, supported by supply constraints and robust demand from the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [15][17]. - The market is advised to monitor post-holiday demand recovery and the pace of overseas mining resumption, as these factors will significantly influence future price movements [17][18].