李迅雷专栏 | 高估的美元在走弱：人民币该如何应对

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the common belief that the renminbi will depreciate significantly upon achieving free convertibility is misguided, suggesting instead that the renminbi is undervalued and should be internationalized more rapidly [1]. Group 1: Currency Valuation - Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is used to assess the valuation levels of various currencies, indicating that most currencies, except the Swiss franc, are undervalued compared to their PPP rates [2][4]. - The market exchange rate of the renminbi is significantly lower than its PPP, suggesting that it is undervalued by more than 100% [10]. - Developed countries' currencies have market rates closer to their PPP, while developing countries, including China, show a larger discrepancy, indicating a general undervaluation of their currencies [5]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Renminbi Undervaluation - The low liquidity of the renminbi is a primary reason for its long-term undervaluation, as higher liquidity typically correlates with higher currency value [7][10]. - The renminbi's international payment share is only 2.89%, significantly lower than the US dollar's over 40%, reflecting its limited use in global transactions [11][16]. - The geographical concentration of renminbi payments, with 76.5% occurring in Hong Kong, limits its global acceptance and further contributes to its undervaluation [14]. Group 3: Global Economic Context - The US dollar is considered overvalued and is facing downward pressure due to the US's economic challenges, including high national debt and declining foreign investment [25][29]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with global central banks increasing their gold reserves as a hedge against dollar instability [30][32]. - The article posits that the renminbi could rise in international stature, potentially surpassing the yen and pound, if its internationalization is accelerated [33][36]. Group 4: Recommendations for Renminbi Internationalization - To enhance the renminbi's status as a strong currency, it is essential to increase global demand through financial market openness and improve its credit rating through regulatory reforms [37]. - The article suggests that relaxing capital controls could lead to a more balanced exchange rate for the renminbi, benefiting both domestic and international investors [36].