超微电脑财报解读：市场对人工智能的重大革新依然不买账

Core Viewpoint - Supermicro Computer (SMCI) reported an impressive quarterly earnings performance, yet its stock price showed little rebound, indicating market skepticism despite a significant reduction in AI sector risks. Analysts maintain a bullish outlook, supported by strong quarterly results [1]. Group 1: Quarterly Performance - Supermicro's revenue for the second fiscal quarter reached $12.7 billion, exceeding expectations by $2.4 billion and setting a historical record, driven by a prior order of $13 billion for Blackwell Ultra GPUs [2]. - The company experienced a year-over-year revenue increase of 123% and a quarter-over-quarter surge of 153%, with third-quarter revenue guidance set at $12.3 billion, significantly above market expectations of $10.2 billion [5]. Group 2: Profit Margins and Future Expectations - Despite the strong revenue growth, the non-GAAP gross margin fell to 6.4%, leading to only a slight increase in EPS, which exceeded expectations by $0.20 [5]. - The company aims for gross margins to rebound above 20% with its DCBBS product line, which is expected to enhance profitability due to its unique offerings [5][6]. - Management previously set an overall gross margin target of 14%-17%, indicating that current low margins are a temporary effect of initial customer discounts [6]. Group 3: Inventory and Accounts Receivable - Supermicro's inventory nearly doubled to $10.6 billion, while accounts receivable surged from over $8 billion to $11 billion, reflecting the preparation for substantial orders [6]. - A significant portion of sales is linked to a major client, which is set to merge with SpaceX and aims for a valuation of $1.2 trillion, minimizing the risk of payment defaults [6]. Group 4: Revenue Guidance and Market Perception - The revenue target for fiscal year 2026 has been raised to $40 billion from $36 billion, which appears conservative given the annualized revenue nearing $50 billion for the second and third quarters [8]. - The company’s guidance suggests that only about $10 billion in revenue is needed in the fourth quarter to meet the annual target, with a single client contributing 63% of the second-quarter revenue [9]. Group 5: Earnings Projections - Current market expectations for EPS are low, with the second-quarter EPS at $0.69, leading to an annualized EPS of approximately $2.76, closely aligning with analyst forecasts for fiscal year 2027 [9]. - Under a baseline scenario with a 10% gross margin, EPS could reach $3.63, while an optimistic scenario with a 20% gross margin could see EPS rise to $9.67 [11]. Group 6: Valuation and Risks - Supermicro's current valuation corresponds to a 10x multiple of the baseline EPS, contrasting sharply with competitors like Tianhong Electronics, which has a higher valuation despite lower profit margin targets [12]. - The primary risk remains the potential for renewed accounting scandals or failure to meet financial targets, which could further erode market trust and lead to stock price declines [12].