国泰海通｜宏观：PPI修复继续：输入性影响——2026年1月物价数据点评

Core Viewpoint - In January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased year-on-year to 0.2%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased year-on-year to -1.4%, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival and external inflationary pressures [2][3]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - The CPI's year-on-year decline to 0.2% was primarily affected by the misalignment of the Spring Festival, with the month-on-month CPI growth also weaker than historical averages when adjusted for seasonal effects [2]. - The core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, slightly above historical averages, supported by rising durable goods prices due to gold price increases and policy subsidies, while service prices showed weaker seasonal growth [2][3]. - The recent CPI base period adjustment enhanced coverage of new economic and consumption patterns, with an increased weight on services and a decreased weight on consumer goods, indicating a shift from ownership consumption to usage and experience-based consumption [2]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI saw a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, with the year-on-year decline narrowing to -1.4%, driven by rising international prices of non-ferrous metals and crude oil, which positively impacted midstream and upstream industries [3]. - Input factors have increasingly influenced price movements, but recovery in domestic demand-related categories may require additional policy support to sustain momentum [3]. - Overall, there is an expectation for the CPI and PPI year-on-year central tendency to rise throughout 2026, with tailwind factors providing strong support; however, maintaining a trend of price recovery will necessitate further policy interventions to boost endogenous demand [3].