国泰海通｜轻工：当预期照进现实，winner-take-all

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the home furnishing industry has sufficient safety margins and that policy expectations are likely to drive valuation recovery [1] - In the short term, the home furnishing industry is under pressure due to weak completion data and relatively flat terminal demand, with a high base effect from national subsidies expected in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [1] - In the medium term, leading home furnishing companies are solidifying their fundamentals at the industry bottom, continuously promoting channel integration and product innovation, achieving growth rates that outpace the industry and increasing market share [1] - In the long term, the furniture and home furnishing sector has a significantly lower concentration compared to other categories, and the bottoming out of the real estate market is expected to accelerate the concentration process, providing ample room for leading companies to increase their market share [1] Group 2 - The current PB of listed home furnishing companies is generally below 20% of historical lows, and the PE, after excluding net cash, is around 10X, also at historical lows [1] - The average dividend payout ratio for home furnishing companies is expected to be around 70% for 2024, corresponding to an average dividend yield of about 5% for 2025, providing stable investment returns [1] - Historical valuation levels indicate that both PB and PE have sufficient upward potential from current positions, offering favorable odds for investors [1] Group 3 - The real estate policy expectations are likely to gradually drive the industry's valuation recovery, with a notable decrease in the number of second-hand residential listings in Shanghai, which has dropped to approximately 336,800 units over four consecutive months [2] - The transaction volume of second-hand homes in Shanghai increased by 15% compared to the same period last month, indicating a rise in market activity [2] - The temporary stabilization of transaction prices suggests a "stop falling" signal in the market, and pilot programs in certain districts for converting second-hand homes into affordable rental housing may further enhance real estate expectations, potentially benefiting the home furnishing supply chain [2]