全国房价止跌信号初现

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the signs of recovery in the real estate market, particularly in the second-hand housing sector, with various cities showing improved transaction volumes and price stabilization [4][10][18]. Group 1: Market Recovery Indicators - As of January 2026, the year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transaction area in 22 cities narrowed from 26.8% to 13.0%, indicating a recovery trend [5]. - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 22 cities reached 279.0 million square meters by the end of January, marking the highest level since June 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 17.7% [5][12]. - Real-time signing data from real estate agents shows a 27.0% year-on-year increase in second-hand home transactions across 26 key cities as of January, with an 18.5% month-on-month growth [5][16]. Group 2: Price Trends - The nationwide average listing price for second-hand homes in January 2026 decreased by 0.85% month-on-month, a reduction in the decline rate compared to previous months [11]. - The listing price decline for first, second, and third-tier cities narrowed to 1.14%, 0.87%, and 0.73% respectively, indicating a stabilization in prices [11][9]. - The average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities was reported at 12,900 yuan per square meter, reflecting a narrowing of the price drop [11]. Group 3: Regional Performance - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showed significant transaction volumes, with Beijing exceeding 15,000 transactions in January, marking a stable recovery [13][14][15]. - In January, Guangzhou recorded 8,881 transactions, a slight increase of 1.07% month-on-month, while Shenzhen saw a 2.9% increase, with a notable year-on-year growth of 45.5% [15] . Group 4: Policy Implications - The article highlights the introduction of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including the exploration of purchasing second-hand homes for rental housing in cities like Shanghai [34][36]. - The "old-for-new" policy in Shanghai aims to facilitate transactions by reducing costs for buyers and increasing the supply of rental housing, which could enhance market activity [35][39]. - Experts suggest that the current market conditions, including improved demand and reduced price declines, may lead to a "small spring" in the real estate market, particularly in core cities [25][27].