张瑜：全球“沃什”交易？对中国有何映射？——张瑜旬度会议纪要No.132

Global Wash Trading - The concept of "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" is central to Wash's philosophy, emphasizing the need to reshape the relationship between monetary policy and fiscal policy, technology, and market dynamics [3][4][6] - The core logic behind rate cuts is based on the belief that the constraints on U.S. economic growth are supply-side rather than demand-side, with AI technology potentially enhancing productivity and efficiency [3] - The rationale for balance sheet reduction is that resource allocation should dynamically adjust according to the private sector's development, allowing the market to efficiently allocate resources when productivity improves [4][6] Impact on U.S. Monetary Policy - In the short term, Wash's ideas may have limited impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy due to the current economic conditions and the need for further verification of AI's productivity claims [7] - In the medium term, if the Fed under Wash's leadership recognizes the potential for low rates and no inflation growth driven by productivity, it may open up more policy space for rate cuts and balance sheet reduction [7] Market Implications - Recent market volatility is not solely attributed to Wash's nomination; rather, it is influenced by broader market trends and the narrative surrounding AI's impact on productivity [8] - Market fluctuations may amplify in 2026 if Wash reduces communication with the market, especially as global monetary policy shifts [8] - The core contradiction in the global market remains the evolution of political order and industrial structure, with the performance of U.S. dollar assets hinging on the realization of AI-driven productivity growth [9] Reflections on Chinese Assets - The global interest rate cycle is nearing its end, which is likely to amplify asset price volatility, necessitating consideration of this backdrop in the Chinese asset market [10] - The narrative of AI prosperity in the U.S. will influence foreign capital inflows into China; if the narrative holds, confidence in dollar assets may persist, delaying significant foreign investment in China [10] - Market focus is expected to shift towards fundamentals, profitability, and dividend support as key economic data and policy directions emerge in 2026 [11] - The pricing logic of gold is fundamentally different from that of silver, copper, and Bitcoin, with gold being viewed as a strategic asset amid global order restructuring [12] Core Insights - The identity of Wash is less important than whether the narrative of AI prosperity can transition into reality; the core constraint on the U.S. economy lies in the supply side, while China's economic constraints are demand-driven [13]