热点思考 | 积极因素正在累积（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The most difficult period for the real estate sector may have passed, with supply and demand pressures easing. Recent data shows a marginal recovery in supply and demand, with the year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transaction area narrowing by over 5 percentage points to -14.7% in the last 3-4 weeks before the festival. The decline in government fund revenue also narrowed to -11.7% [3][47][48] - Various supportive policies are continuously being implemented to stabilize the real estate market. Regulatory focus has shifted towards risk management and livelihood protection, with some companies no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly. Out-of-risk companies must report key financial indicators and progress on debt resolution [3][17][47] - Local governments are launching breakthrough policies to support the acquisition of second-hand housing for rental purposes, with Shanghai's pilot program serving as a significant example. The program aims to acquire small second-hand apartments under 70 square meters in specific districts [3][48][19] Group 2 - Multiple ministries are enhancing policy coordination, with fiscal and financial policies working together to support three key areas: consumption, equipment investment, and the private economy. In January, the net financing scale of government bonds increased by over 280 billion yuan year-on-year, with a significant reduction in the proportion used for debt repayment [4][20][49] - The central bank and the Ministry of Finance have announced measures to expand interest subsidies and reduce financing costs for market entities. The National Venture Capital Fund is directed to invest early, small, long-term, and in hard technology sectors [4][25][49] - Other departments, including commerce and human resources, are also strengthening collaboration to stimulate service consumption. A new work plan was issued to cultivate new growth points in service consumption, focusing on sectors like retail, catering, and tourism [5][27][50] Group 3 - Local governments are proactively advancing economic work, moving away from a wait-and-see attitude. Some regions have scheduled their first meetings of the year immediately after New Year's Day to kickstart annual work [6][51][32] - By the end of January, 20 provinces and cities had disclosed their GDP targets for 2026, with a weighted average of 5.1%. Major provinces like Guangdong and Henan expressed positive outlooks, emphasizing the pursuit of better results in actual work [6][35][51] - The upcoming Spring Festival will be the longest in history, making holiday consumption a key driver for first-quarter domestic demand and a foundation for economic recovery throughout the year. Policies are shifting from traditional physical consumption stimulation to a balanced focus on both physical and service consumption [7][42][52]