中金：行业景气再考察 ——从五维指数看行业景气度

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a scoring card framework based on four dimensions: inventory, demand, profitability, and supply, which has been optimized to assess industry prosperity and identify potential investment opportunities [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Scoring Framework - The scoring card framework has been expanded to five dimensions, incorporating inventory levels, demand growth, profitability, supply expansion, and external demand ratio, with respective weights of 10%, 40%, 20%, 20%, and 10% [5][9]. - As of the Q3 2025 report, industries such as defense, automotive, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and home appliances scored high, indicating a favorable supply-demand balance [6][9]. Group 2: Economic Context - The macroeconomic environment has shown weakened elasticity, with industrial production and prices at historically low levels, leading to a divergence in industry performance [1][3]. - Emerging industries are experiencing rapid growth, supported by increased competitiveness and expansion into overseas markets, while traditional sectors face demand constraints [1][3]. Group 3: Industry Performance Metrics - Non-ferrous metals and electronics have shown significant revenue growth, with inventory cycles turning upward, while industries like steel and communication have exhibited restrained supply expansion [6][7]. - The scoring results indicate that high-scoring industries are more likely to achieve excess returns in the market, with a notable performance of 89% excess return for the highest scoring industry combinations by the end of January 2026 [9][10].