中金：基期轮换映升级，春节扰动不足虑 ——2026年1月物价数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The January CPI decreased year-on-year from 0.8% to 0.2%, primarily affected by the misalignment of the Spring Festival, with significant drag from food and services [1][2][3]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - The year-on-year CPI drop was mainly due to the Spring Festival misalignment, with food and service prices contributing negatively [2][3]. - Food prices, particularly fresh vegetables, saw a significant decline, with the CPI for fresh vegetables dropping from 18.2% to 6.9%, impacting the overall CPI by 0.27 percentage points [2][4]. - Service prices also fell, with a year-on-year decrease from 0.6% to 0.1%, influenced by lower prices for airline tickets, travel agency fees, and domestic services [3][4]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of positive growth, driven by rising international prices for non-ferrous metals and improved supply-demand dynamics in certain sectors [14][15]. - The year-on-year PPI decline narrowed to -1.4%, with structural improvements observed, although downstream price transmission remains a concern [14][15]. - Certain industries, such as photovoltaic equipment manufacturing and black metal smelting, experienced price increases due to optimized supply-demand structures [15]. Group 3: Consumption Structure Changes - A five-year periodic base year rotation was conducted in January 2026, adjusting the basket content and weights to reflect new changes in production, circulation, and consumption [20][21]. - The classification of consumption categories was updated, including new categories for housing security devices and internet medical services, reflecting shifts in consumer behavior [22][23]. - The weight structure changes indicate a transition in consumer spending from goods to services, with an increase in the weight of food and dining out, while clothing and living services saw a decrease [23][24]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the CPI is expected to rebound in February due to the Spring Festival misalignment, but the extent of improvement will depend on the recovery of domestic demand [25][26]. - The "anti-involution" policies may lead to a gradual narrowing of the PPI year-on-year decline, but price transmission challenges may persist, influenced by high base effects and domestic demand recovery [26].