中金 | 全球LNG：加速调节能力构建，供需灵活性初现

Core Viewpoint - The global LNG industry is expected to enter a period of oversupply, with a consensus that supply will exceed demand in the medium term, leading to downward pressure on prices. However, recent positive signals from the demand side and self-adjustment from the supply side suggest a potential stabilization in prices before a decline [1][3][6]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global LNG market is projected to experience a significant increase in supply, with approximately 160 million tons of LNG capacity expected to come online from 2025 to 2027, primarily from the US and Qatar [1][5]. - The medium-term outlook indicates that LNG spot prices may decline to below $8/MMBtu, with the average spot price in Northeast Asia expected to be $9, $8, and $7 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [1][3]. - The current supply structure is deemed reasonable, and market participants are adjusting their supply release schedules, which may lead to a "stabilization before decline" scenario for LNG prices [1][3][6]. Group 2: China's Natural Gas Demand - China's natural gas demand is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year in 2026, driven primarily by transportation and power generation, despite a potential downward adjustment in wholesale prices [2][21]. - From 2027 onwards, as international LNG supply increases, previously suppressed demand in China may begin to recover, with growth rates potentially revised upward to 5-7% [2][11]. - The reduction in LNG prices to around $8/MMBtu could enhance the competitiveness of natural gas against coal and biomass, potentially improving heating demand in rural areas [12][20]. Group 3: European and Global Demand Trends - The EU's LNG demand is expected to face upward adjustments due to the anticipated exit of Russian gas supplies, with a need for approximately 40 billion cubic meters of non-Russian LNG by 2025 [8][11]. - The carbon market in Europe has seen significant price increases, which may suppress gas demand in high-energy-consuming industries [8][11]. - In addition to Europe, countries like India and Southeast Asian nations are projected to increase their LNG imports significantly, with India's demand expected to rise by over 100% compared to 2025 levels [13][11]. Group 4: Price Support Mechanisms - The linkage of LNG long-term contracts to oil prices may provide a floor for LNG spot prices, with expectations that Brent crude prices will rise, thereby supporting LNG prices [14][19]. - The US natural gas market is also expected to see a stabilization in prices, which could further support LNG pricing dynamics [18][19]. - The cost structure for US LNG exports is anticipated to rise, which may help maintain price levels in the global market [19][20].