数据点评 | 如何理解1月通胀分化？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoints - January inflation shows divergence, influenced by the misalignment of the Spring Festival, external factors driving up prices, and weak demand [2][8] - The decline in PPI has narrowed significantly, primarily due to the increased impact of copper prices and some influence from the base period rotation [2][8] - January PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to -1.4% [2][8] PPI Analysis - The increase in copper prices has contributed significantly to PPI, with copper prices rising by 9.3% month-on-month, leading to a 0.5% increase in PPI [2][8] - The prices of non-ferrous metal mining and processing rose by 5.7% and 5.2% respectively, contributing positively to PPI [2][8] - In contrast, the prices of crude oil and coal have weakened, dragging PPI down by -0.08% and -0.15% respectively [12][71] CPI Analysis - The CPI fell significantly in January, primarily due to the Spring Festival misalignment, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points to 0.2% [3][17] - The month-on-month CPI increase was only 0.2%, which is notably lower than the previous year's performance before the Spring Festival [3][17] - Food CPI saw a substantial decline, dropping by 1.8 percentage points to -0.7%, influenced by high pig inventory levels keeping pork prices low [3][17] Core CPI and Service CPI - Excluding gold price impacts, the core CPI also showed weakness, falling by 0.4 percentage points to 1.6% [24][72] - The service CPI decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 0.1%, with weak rental demand contributing to a decline in housing CPI [4][28] - The core service CPI remained weak, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.3%, lower than the previous year's performance [4][28] Future Outlook - The performance of downstream prices is crucial compared to upstream price increases, with ongoing monitoring of the effects of anti-involution policies [39][73] - Despite potential continued increases in commodity prices, the transmission of upstream price increases to downstream remains limited, leading to a weak recovery in PPI [39][73] - For CPI, the low base in February, combined with high gold prices and improved service consumption, may lead to a significant rebound, potentially showing a "V-shaped" trend early in the year [39][73]