大宗商品狂欢后，下一个关键机会在哪里

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant trends in the commodity market, highlighting the rise of resource nationalism and the investment opportunities in the mining supply chain as a response to the evolving market dynamics and increasing competition among nations for resource control [1][4]. Group 1: Resource Nationalism and Industry Expansion - Resource nationalism is on the rise, leading to increased production incentives as countries prioritize control over their resources. Resource-exporting nations are moving away from previous models of "heavy export, light control" to policies that enhance resource sovereignty and local benefits [5][6]. - Major consuming countries, particularly manufacturing giants like the US and China, are accelerating their global resource strategies to ensure supply chain security and strategic competition, which intensifies the competition in the resource sector [6]. Group 2: Investment Cycles and Demand Dynamics - Following the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2020, the mining sector experienced a significant investment expansion, with global mining capital expenditure increasing by 50% from 2020 to 2023. However, growth slowed from 2023 to 2025, maintaining a modest single-digit increase or remaining flat [10]. - As the global resource market enters a bull phase and a new round of interest rate cuts begins, mining capital expenditure is expected to restart its upward cycle, with Caterpillar predicting a further 50% increase in mining capital expenditure by 2030 [12]. Group 3: Focus on Post-Cycle Investments - Different stages of mining development correspond to various cycle attributes and investment logic. Exploration and mining infrastructure are considered pre-cycle, while extraction, transportation, screening, and refining are post-cycle. The current trend shows a decline in new mine developments while capital expenditure on existing mines is increasing, indicating a focus on post-cycle investments [14][18]. - The post-cycle segments of mining, which are often associated with large-scale production and high technical barriers, present significant growth opportunities for companies. For instance, the demand for large-capacity mining trucks is high, but Chinese brands have historically struggled to penetrate the international market due to technological and ecological barriers [20]. Group 4: Opportunities for Chinese Enterprises - The changing global mining landscape offers new opportunities for Chinese companies, particularly in the post-cycle segments. Chinese mining companies' global expansion provides a chance for domestic mining truck manufacturers to collaborate and enter international markets, leveraging cost advantages and efficient service support [22]. - The push for green transformation in mining, driven by global carbon neutrality goals, is leading to the adoption of electric and autonomous mining trucks. Chinese companies are capitalizing on this trend by integrating electric technology into mining operations, enhancing competitiveness and operational efficiency [22][23].