【广发宏观文永恒】技术浪潮驱动，产业范式重构：中长期宏观环境展望

Core Viewpoint - Each technological revolution initially enhances production efficiency, subsequently leading to changes in economic structure, industry patterns, and asset allocation models. The driving force behind technology's evolution from inception to widespread adoption is not merely a breakthrough in a single technology, but rather the penetration, diffusion, and deep integration of new technologies within the economic system [1][13]. Group 1: Technological Revolution Phases - Since the Industrial Revolution, global economies experience a "great wave" driven by significant technological clusters approximately every 50-60 years, establishing a new "technology-economy paradigm" that optimizes production, organization, and management models [2][17]. - Each technological revolution can be divided into two main phases: the Installation Period and the Deployment Period. The Installation Period is characterized by infrastructure reconstruction, trial-and-error business models, and financial capital accumulation, further divided into the outbreak and frenzy stages. The Deployment Period features comprehensive technology dissemination and the establishment of economic paradigms, further divided into the synergy and maturity stages [2][17]. Group 2: Capital Forms and Their Roles - The "great wave" theory distinguishes between two forms of capital: financial capital and production capital. Financial capital is adept at trend identification, flexibility, speculation, and short-term profit orientation, while production capital focuses on industry realization, stability, path dependence, and long-term investment orientation. During the Installation Period of technological revolutions, financial capital typically takes the lead, while production capital assumes a dominant role during the Deployment Period [3][20]. Group 3: Economic Impacts of Technological Revolutions - In the Installation Period of a technological revolution, the overall economy may face pressure, and the differentiation between new and old industries may widen. New technologies are still in the nurturing phase and may not broadly stimulate related industries, employment, or productivity [5][29]. - During the Deployment Period, overall economic pressure is expected to ease, and the differentiation between new and old industries may narrow. New technologies become widely applied, leading to new products, business forms, and industries, which can create new employment forms [5][30]. Group 4: Global Dynamics and Catch-Up Opportunities - The "great wave" theory indicates that the Installation Period of each technological revolution provides critical catch-up windows for latecomer countries. Historical examples include Germany and the U.S. surpassing the U.K. before World War II, and the post-war rise of Japan and other economies [7][40]. - Latecomer countries can leverage their "latecomer advantage" by utilizing labor cost and technology transfer advantages to achieve leapfrog development, mastering key core technologies that drive the development of leading industries [7][40]. Group 5: Future Implications and Trends - The emergence of AI as the core technology of the sixth technological revolution is expected to enhance productivity across all sectors, breaking traditional growth bottlenecks. The scenario of AI's application is anticipated to evolve significantly, particularly in countries with favorable conditions for technology integration [10][12]. - The theory also suggests that macroeconomic policies should promote overall rebalancing, including actively expanding total demand and ensuring employment stability during the technological revolution's Installation Period [12][13].