输入性通胀、物价口径修正、AI传导、PPI何时转正（国金宏观孙永乐）

Core Viewpoint - The PPI may turn positive in certain months of Q2 2026 due to low base effects and sustained demand in AI-related industries, but its sustainability depends on whether real estate investment stabilizes [2][17]. Group 1: Price Data Overview - In January 2026, the CPI decreased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 0.2%, while the PPI increased by 0.5 percentage points to -1.4% due to input inflation [4]. - The impact of the price data revision is minimal, with the average effect on CPI and PPI year-on-year indices being approximately 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points, respectively [5]. - The weight distribution of CPI categories remains largely unchanged, with food, clothing, and housing accounting for significant portions of the index [5]. Group 2: Industry Contributions to PPI - The weight of midstream industries like electrical machinery and electronic equipment manufacturing, as well as non-ferrous metals, has steadily increased, while the share of black-related and downstream industries has slightly decreased [6]. - Gold prices have significantly supported CPI, contributing 0.3 percentage points, while AI-related investments have driven PPI up by 0.9 percentage points [8]. - In January, the PPI for non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries rose by 22.7% and 17.1% year-on-year, respectively, contributing 1.1 percentage points to the PPI increase [8]. Group 3: Future PPI Trends - The PPI is expected to turn positive in Q2 2026, with tail effects contributing to this change, potentially moving from -1.5 percentage points at the beginning of the year to around +0.4 percentage points by July [13]. - If the PPI's month-on-month average stabilizes above 0%, it could lead to a positive year-on-year PPI by June, with a potential increase of around 1% [16]. - The sustainability of price increases will depend on downstream demand and the stabilization of real estate investments, which have been a drag on PPI due to declining property investments [17].