就业反弹推迟降息窗口——2026年1月美国非农数据解读【陈兴团队·华福宏观】

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rebound in non-farm employment in January, with an increase of 130,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 65,000, marking the largest growth since January 2025 [2] - The private sector added 172,000 jobs in January, with a three-month average of 103,000 and a fourth-quarter average of 50,000, indicating a stabilization in the job market following signals from Powell during the January meeting [2] - The education and healthcare sectors contributed the majority of the job growth, adding 137,000 jobs, while other sectors like retail and leisure showed fluctuations but remained lower than in the first half of 2025 [5] Group 2 - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, benefiting from improved job demand, with stable overall unemployment numbers [6] - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%, with notable rebounds in the participation rates of younger age groups [6] - Job vacancies in December fell to 6.542 million, the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic, with the vacancy rate dropping below 4% for the first time since the pandemic [8] Group 3 - Average hourly earnings in January increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding expectations, while year-on-year growth slightly decreased to 3.7% [10] - The highest year-on-year wage growth was observed in the retail and financial sectors, while the lowest was in business services and healthcare [13] - Real wage growth showed signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% in December, indicating potential support for consumer recovery [16] Group 4 - Following the release of strong non-farm data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March dropped significantly, with probabilities for a cut in June also declining [19] - Asset prices reacted positively, with major U.S. stock indices rising and the dollar strengthening, while precious metals experienced a pullback from previous highs [19]