光伏周价格 | 白银硅片双跌引发连锁反应，电池组件价格2月下旬承压

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the photovoltaic industry, highlighting the supply-demand imbalance, price trends, and the impact of inventory levels on various segments including polysilicon, wafers, battery cells, and modules [4][5][6][7][9][10][11][13][14]. Polysilicon - Supply side: The total inventory of polysilicon remains above 510,000 tons, with a slight accumulation trend. Major upstream manufacturers have begun significant production cuts, with Tongwei expected to reduce output to below 85,000 tons in January [4]. - Demand side: Downstream demand continues to weaken, with crystal pulling factories focusing on consuming their own inventory, leading to a significant reduction in new procurement demand for polysilicon [5]. - Price trend: The market is experiencing a stalemate, with prices around RMB 50/kg lacking upward momentum due to weak downstream demand and falling wafer prices [6]. Wafers - Supply and demand: Inventory levels in the wafer segment have risen to approximately 25 GW, indicating an oversupply situation. Manufacturers face significant shipping pressure, and the market's primary task is to digest existing inventory [7]. - Price trend: Actual transaction prices for wafers have continued to decline, with mainstream specifications hitting historical lows. The price for 183N wafers has dropped to RMB 1.1 per piece, reflecting extreme market weakness [8]. Battery Cells - Supply side: Inventory levels for battery cells have slightly increased, with current stock at 8-9 days. Despite ongoing production cuts, there is strong anticipation for production resumption post-holiday, which may intensify price competition [9]. - Demand side: The terminal market shows weak demand, with downstream component manufacturers adopting a cautious procurement strategy and a strong willingness to press prices down [10]. - Price trend: Battery prices are at risk of declining due to falling costs from silver and wafer prices, with expectations of a potential price drop following the holiday [11]. Modules - Supply and demand: The module market exhibits a significant "hot outside, cold inside" dichotomy, with domestic demand weak while overseas markets show strong order activity due to export tax rebate policies [13]. - Price trend: Current spot prices vary significantly, with leading manufacturers quoting between RMB 0.8-0.85/W, while second and third-tier manufacturers are around RMB 0.78/W. Despite intense low-price competition, recent bidding prices for domestic projects have shown some recovery [14].